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> So the gap will likely narrow over time. No. Most of the early deaths occured because people didn't get some vaccine immunity before getting their first infe

> So the gap will likely narrow over time. No. Most of the early deaths occured because people didn't get some vaccine immunity before getting their first infection. Most people in Australia were vaccinated before their first infection thereby lowering the death rate.

jefftk 5y ago
I expect the gap to continue to narrow because it has been narrowing: https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-03-01..latest&facet=none&pickerSort=desc&pickerMetric=new_deaths_per_million&Metric=Confirmed+deaths&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Color+by+test+positivity=false&country=USA~AUS https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explor...
- maxerickson 5y ago
  If you start from the premise that a much larger portion of the vulnerable in the US have already been infected, the expectation would be that the gap will only ever narrow, so the direction isn't really an indictment of the policy in Australia, you have to look at where things end up.
  - jefftk 5y ago
    I didn't say it was an indictment of Australian policy, and don't think that. But my parent was saying that the gap was unlikely to narrow, which is just wrong.
- threatripper 5y ago
  Besides the statistical anomaly at the end (probably a one time correction for some past cases) the US death rate has always been higher. So the gap has been widening until now. Look at cumulative cases. Only the derivative of the gap, the daily deaths per capita, has been narrowing. I agree that the daily numbers should become similar when prior immunity due to vaccination or infection becomes similar (all else being equal). But that does not erase the huge amount of deaths before people got their first vaccine.
  - jefftk 5y ago
    Good point! In cumulative deaths per million: US AUS delta 2022-01-01 2477 87 2360 2022-02-01 2673 141 2532 2022-03-01 2852 204 2648 2022-04-01 2948 247 2701 I didn't look closely at the graph and I misread the recent apparent spike, which I agree with you is likely some kind of correction. I'm sorry I can't go back and edit my comment!

jefftk 5y ago

I expect the gap to continue to narrow because it has been narrowing: https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-03-01..latest&facet=none&pickerSort=desc&pickerMetric=new_deaths_per_million&Metric=Confirmed+deaths&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Color+by+test+positivity=false&country=USA~AUS https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explor...

maxerickson 5y ago
If you start from the premise that a much larger portion of the vulnerable in the US have already been infected, the expectation would be that the gap will only ever narrow, so the direction isn't really an indictment of the policy in Australia, you have to look at where things end up.
- jefftk 5y ago
  I didn't say it was an indictment of Australian policy, and don't think that. But my parent was saying that the gap was unlikely to narrow, which is just wrong.
threatripper 5y ago
Besides the statistical anomaly at the end (probably a one time correction for some past cases) the US death rate has always been higher. So the gap has been widening until now. Look at cumulative cases. Only the derivative of the gap, the daily deaths per capita, has been narrowing. I agree that the daily numbers should become similar when prior immunity due to vaccination or infection becomes similar (all else being equal). But that does not erase the huge amount of deaths before people got their first vaccine.
- jefftk 5y ago
  Good point! In cumulative deaths per million: US AUS delta 2022-01-01 2477 87 2360 2022-02-01 2673 141 2532 2022-03-01 2852 204 2648 2022-04-01 2948 247 2701 I didn't look closely at the graph and I misread the recent apparent spike, which I agree with you is likely some kind of correction. I'm sorry I can't go back and edit my comment!