3 ms·
> "Doomsday being the moment when the ability to lower the atmospheric temperature has slipped from our control. The moment when we puny humans are finally and
by photochemsyn 5y ago
> "Doomsday being the moment when the ability to lower the atmospheric temperature has slipped from our control. The moment when we puny humans are finally and irrevocably at the mercy of hurricanes, fires, tornadoes, drought, food shortages, rising sea levels and all the socio-political carnage that will accompany same."
We're already there, current CO2 is 420 ppm and steadily rising. Climate is on an irrevocable trajectory towards a much warmer norm, similar to conditions ~3-5 million years ago during the Pliocene era, before the onset of the ice-age cycle of the Pliestocene. Those who deny this at this point are simply ignorant of the facts.
> "It is sometimes imagined that slow processes such as climate changes pose small risks, on the basis of the assumption that a choice can always be made to quickly reduce emissions and thereby reverse any harm within a few years or decades. We have shown that this assumption is incorrect for carbon dioxide emissions, because of the longevity of the atmospheric CO4 perturbation and ocean warming."
Source: Irreversible climate change due to carbon dioxide emissions, PNAS (2009) (sci-hub_se)
CO2 was 320 ppm in 1960; we're not going back there, it's 420 ppm now, with a current growth rate of 10 ppm / decade. Stabilizing at ~440 ppm might be possible (neglecting slow but steady permafrost outgassing) if the world commits to a 3% reduction in fossil fuel use per year over the next 30 years, about the fastest change I imagine to be feasibly possible. This means zero fossil fuel use globally in 30 years, and of course current oil/gas corporation projections are to maintain current output for the next 30 years. Non oil-gas producers like Germany and China are the ones shifting the fastest to renewables; the likes of the USA, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Venezuela etc. are bent on continuing to produce and export.
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-atmospheric-carbon-dioxide https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/...
Practically this means human civilization is going to have to spend as much effort on adapting to this new climate reality as on replacing fossil fuel infrastructure with renewable energy sources. Water supply infrastructure will be a major issue, food production will be a major issue, sea level rise will be a major issue, population migration and extreme weather damages will be major issues.
The point has been tipped, the pooch has been screwed, and now we all have to deal with the aftermath.