5 ms·

This is why I don't like to put predictions in writing. It's very hard to predict events over a 10 year time period. (you don't know what you don't know)

toomuchtodo 5y ago
Even if you're wrong, I think it's a fun exercise from an anthropological perspective about what people thought and predicted based on the evidence available at the time. Big fan of https://longbets.org/ https://longbets.org/ as well for similar reasons.
- misiti3780 5y ago
  I agree, it is fun. I remember the day this happening thinking they overpaid. I wish there was a bookmark from 2021/22 on the price of BTC/ETH and the prevalence of NFTs in 10 years ...
ftkftk 5y ago
I predict that predictions will get easier and automated over the next 10 year time period.
- BipolarCapybara 5y ago
  I'll bookmark this comment
jamestanderson 5y ago
I also don't put my predictions in writing, but I appreciate those that do. It's easy to look at the state of the world today and say, "Of course. How could it end up any other way?" Looking at how badly old predictions miss the mark serves as a good reminder that the bets we make today for the future are probably just as wrong.
wpietri 5y ago
That is exactly why you should put predictions in writing! Take a look at a project I worked on, Long Bets: https://longbets.org/ https://longbets.org/ The theory is that putting predictions out there is the best way to learn. And looking at the results from this project, I think that's the case. The specificity of the predictions and the description of the reasoning helps us understand both the world and ourselves. So I congratulate georgespencer for making a specific, testable prediction that turned out wrong. It's very interestingly wrong! Instagram didn't end up being just a photo service. Instead, it's a social phenomenon that uses photos in a deeply different way than we had seen previously. His prediction helps us see how much has changed in the 10 years since. There are a lot of people out there doin' it for the 'gram. There are plenty of people who life for and/or live off of it. And personally, I suspect I would have agreed with georgespencer at the time. I like photography and like sharing photos. But I really dislike Instagram; it's not for me. So this is a reminder to me that just because a thing doesn't make sense to me doesn't mean it won't be hugely popular in world-changing ways.
nabla9 5y ago
Only if your self-worth is tied to being right. Getting things wrong is common and thinking the reasons for being wrong is illuminating. Learning and calibrating from previous errors is a good thing.
mekoka 5y ago
10 years? You're very generous. I think we should write down our predictions exactly as a personal reminder of how wrong we can be in our understanding of the world in general. Most of us tend to just brush it off, which is why we constantly have analysts on tv explaining with hindsight why someone else's predictions for the past year were off, to ironically follow with predictions of their own for the coming year. And on the circle goes.

toomuchtodo 5y ago

Even if you're wrong, I think it's a fun exercise from an anthropological perspective about what people thought and predicted based on the evidence available at the time. Big fan of https://longbets.org/ https://longbets.org/ as well for similar reasons.

misiti3780 5y ago
I agree, it is fun. I remember the day this happening thinking they overpaid. I wish there was a bookmark from 2021/22 on the price of BTC/ETH and the prevalence of NFTs in 10 years ...

ftkftk 5y ago

I predict that predictions will get easier and automated over the next 10 year time period.

BipolarCapybara 5y ago
I'll bookmark this comment

jamestanderson 5y ago

I also don't put my predictions in writing, but I appreciate those that do. It's easy to look at the state of the world today and say, "Of course. How could it end up any other way?" Looking at how badly old predictions miss the mark serves as a good reminder that the bets we make today for the future are probably just as wrong.

wpietri 5y ago

That is exactly why you should put predictions in writing! Take a look at a project I worked on, Long Bets: https://longbets.org/ https://longbets.org/ The theory is that putting predictions out there is the best way to learn. And looking at the results from this project, I think that's the case. The specificity of the predictions and the description of the reasoning helps us understand both the world and ourselves. So I congratulate georgespencer for making a specific, testable prediction that turned out wrong. It's very interestingly wrong! Instagram didn't end up being just a photo service. Instead, it's a social phenomenon that uses photos in a deeply different way than we had seen previously. His prediction helps us see how much has changed in the 10 years since. There are a lot of people out there doin' it for the 'gram. There are plenty of people who life for and/or live off of it. And personally, I suspect I would have agreed with georgespencer at the time. I like photography and like sharing photos. But I really dislike Instagram; it's not for me. So this is a reminder to me that just because a thing doesn't make sense to me doesn't mean it won't be hugely popular in world-changing ways.

nabla9 5y ago

Only if your self-worth is tied to being right. Getting things wrong is common and thinking the reasons for being wrong is illuminating. Learning and calibrating from previous errors is a good thing.

mekoka 5y ago

10 years? You're very generous. I think we should write down our predictions exactly as a personal reminder of how wrong we can be in our understanding of the world in general. Most of us tend to just brush it off, which is why we constantly have analysts on tv explaining with hindsight why someone else's predictions for the past year were off, to ironically follow with predictions of their own for the coming year. And on the circle goes.