This feels very wrong. ~40% of new small businesses will fail in 2 years. If 40% of all small businesses fail, that's completely different. If I model a small b

This feels very wrong. ~40% of new small businesses will fail in 2 years. If 40% of all small businesses fail, that's completely different. If I model a small business surviving for 15 years on average, conditional on surviving the bumpy start, that would imply the equilibrium is - small businesses started each year ~10% of all small businesses - ~40% of those fail within the first two years; that's ~4% of the total - looking at the more mature/stable small businesses, ~12% will churn over that same period - total expected: 16% of all small businesses failing over a two year period - therefore the pandemic represents a 250% jump If you model a startup living for 10 years on average, conditional on surviving the first two years, the pandemic would cause a ~200% jump. If you model a startup living for 25 years on average, conditional on surviving the first two years, the pandemic would cause a ~500% jump.