5 ms·

How do I square this supposed prowess with the Ukrainian Air Force still operating? Even worse, drone footage (so flying things) of S-300 being destroyed? Or in

How do I square this supposed prowess with the Ukrainian Air Force still operating? Even worse, drone footage (so flying things) of S-300 being destroyed? Or indeed NATO or Israel regularly making mincemeat out of Soviet-equipped opponents? I’m not denying Russians can achieve technological brilliance, often bypassing budgetary constraints in novel ways, equally their military technology seems to regularly come up top trumps on paper and not in the battlefield.

dragonwriter 5y ago
Logistics, training, discipline, and morale/motivation are factors that often get treated as secondary to technology, but in most battlefield scenarios they are a big deal, and Russia has big problems with all of them.
stochtastic 5y ago
I'll refrain from picking a side, but Air Power Australia and the credibility of its proprietor Carlo Kopp are... controversial [1,2]. He has extensive knowledge of many of the relevant topics, but is viewed as having an axe to grind about particular systems as they pertain to Australian procurement decisions. Russian SAMs have always been shrouded in a huge amount of marketing mystery. While they are obviously capable and advanced systems, evidence continues to accumulate that some of the magic is smoke and mirrors. I read this article with great interest over technical details, but stop short of accepting conclusions along the lines of "Flap Lid is comparable to SPY-1". Only the folks who train and operate against those systems in the real world really know if that's true, and it's one of the things we are least likely to have accurate information about in the public domain. [1] https://www.reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/comments/1vj7r6/is_ausairpowernet_a_credible_source/ https://www.reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/comments/1vj7r6/is_... [2] https://www.f-16.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=27190& https://www.f-16.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=27190&
- PaulHoule 5y ago
  SPY-1 will certainly see things better near the horizon simply because it is at sea. Thinking about what Kopp says my conclusion is that he wouldn’t be happy with any single engine fighter.
nl 5y ago
I thought this was a good piece about the success of Turkish drones vs the Russian Pantsir AA system in Libya was pretty good. It goes pretty deep into the tactics used. https://www.mideastcenter.org/post/how-did-turkish-uavs-outmaneuver-russia-s-pantsir-air-defense-in-libya-lessons-and-ramifications https://www.mideastcenter.org/post/how-did-turkish-uavs-outm...
recuter 5y ago
Israel has a deconflicting mechanism with Russia in Syria as does the US and Turkey but it is very true that it could more or less do whatever it wants. Because it is the IAF. The Ukrainian Air Force is still operating mostly because the Russian one is somewhat MIA. Possible/Partial explanation for their bad performance is corruption. Another one is much more alarming and that is that the Russian strategy does not require air superiority. Either way it is not relevant to the S-300 which is deployed within the borders of Russia as it is a defensive system. What you want to read about instead is the Krasukha: https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/44879/ukraine-just-captured-part-of-one-of-russias-most-capable-electronic-warfare-systems https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/44879/ukraine-just-cap...
- trhway 5y ago
  >the Russian one is somewhat MIA it is a bit unclear why, yet Russia has frequently been using much more expensive Su-30/35 fighters and Su-34 bombers for close air support instead of more traditional/suitable/cheap Su-25. As close air support naturally loses a lot of planes to MANPADS and air-defense guns, especially considering that Su-30/35/34 aren't armored like Su-25, Russia has lost a lot of those Su-30/35/34. Also using mostly unguided bombs (despite all the Russian propaganda claims of using only "high-precision weapons"- just look at that glorious state TV report on using "high-precision" where they show plane loaded only with FAB-250 unguided bombs at timestamp 24:55 of https://rutube.ru/video/4b400cbcfbbd6c1b730b5e80138fe598/ https://rutube.ru/video/4b400cbcfbbd6c1b730b5e80138fe598/ - and they even show supposed launch of a ground attack missile from that plane loaded only with those bombs :) Russian planes have had to go pretty low to achieve any resemblance of close hits - it is the city bombing that they do from 8-10 km altitude while bombing any specific target requires to go very low where they again lose to MANPADS and other air-defenses. As a result of high losses (close to 100 planes out of supposedly 1300 combat capable planes that the whole Russia has - that 1300 is an official number, divide by 2x at least to get real number :) Russia has significantly scaled back the close air support and decreased air superiority missions.
  - greedo 5y ago
    The RuAF has been using the SU-25 Frogfoot in Ukraine. They've lost roughly 9 or so, more than any other aircraft type. https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-docum...
323 5y ago
Maybe they are just not running them? There are a lot of military experts saying that they see baffling examples of incompetence from the Russian army in this war, failing at really basic stuff. I'm no military expert, but I've seen Russian infantry videos where they are basically running around like headless chickens as the saying goes, like they received no training at all.
vondur 5y ago
Russia is a pale shadow of the Soviet Union in its heyday.
spamizbad 5y ago
These are very advanced machines that require regular maintenance and a well-trained and crew to operate. Gaps in maintenance, training, and even poor communication with command will greatly reduce their efficacy.
golergka 5y ago
Among other explanations that are just as true, corruption had to be mentioned. Russian officers are ridiculously badly paid and not respected on the society, and they certainly didn't anticipate a large war that would catch them with their pants down.
mst 5y ago
All else aside (since other commenters have covered every other thought I had and more) it's worth noting that Ukraine is also fielding S300 class kit and this has likely been a significant contributor to Russian aircraft losses. It also appears that in the Russian case either the S300 itself or the training of the crews has not been particularly effective against the Bayraktar drones, which I'm not aware of Russia having an equivalent of to use against the Ukrainians.

dragonwriter 5y ago

Logistics, training, discipline, and morale/motivation are factors that often get treated as secondary to technology, but in most battlefield scenarios they are a big deal, and Russia has big problems with all of them.

stochtastic 5y ago

I'll refrain from picking a side, but Air Power Australia and the credibility of its proprietor Carlo Kopp are... controversial [1,2]. He has extensive knowledge of many of the relevant topics, but is viewed as having an axe to grind about particular systems as they pertain to Australian procurement decisions. Russian SAMs have always been shrouded in a huge amount of marketing mystery. While they are obviously capable and advanced systems, evidence continues to accumulate that some of the magic is smoke and mirrors. I read this article with great interest over technical details, but stop short of accepting conclusions along the lines of "Flap Lid is comparable to SPY-1". Only the folks who train and operate against those systems in the real world really know if that's true, and it's one of the things we are least likely to have accurate information about in the public domain. [1] https://www.reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/comments/1vj7r6/is_ausairpowernet_a_credible_source/ https://www.reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/comments/1vj7r6/is_... [2] https://www.f-16.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=27190& https://www.f-16.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=27190&

PaulHoule 5y ago
SPY-1 will certainly see things better near the horizon simply because it is at sea. Thinking about what Kopp says my conclusion is that he wouldn’t be happy with any single engine fighter.

nl 5y ago

I thought this was a good piece about the success of Turkish drones vs the Russian Pantsir AA system in Libya was pretty good. It goes pretty deep into the tactics used. https://www.mideastcenter.org/post/how-did-turkish-uavs-outmaneuver-russia-s-pantsir-air-defense-in-libya-lessons-and-ramifications https://www.mideastcenter.org/post/how-did-turkish-uavs-outm...

recuter 5y ago

Israel has a deconflicting mechanism with Russia in Syria as does the US and Turkey but it is very true that it could more or less do whatever it wants. Because it is the IAF. The Ukrainian Air Force is still operating mostly because the Russian one is somewhat MIA. Possible/Partial explanation for their bad performance is corruption. Another one is much more alarming and that is that the Russian strategy does not require air superiority. Either way it is not relevant to the S-300 which is deployed within the borders of Russia as it is a defensive system. What you want to read about instead is the Krasukha: https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/44879/ukraine-just-captured-part-of-one-of-russias-most-capable-electronic-warfare-systems https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/44879/ukraine-just-cap...

trhway 5y ago
>the Russian one is somewhat MIA it is a bit unclear why, yet Russia has frequently been using much more expensive Su-30/35 fighters and Su-34 bombers for close air support instead of more traditional/suitable/cheap Su-25. As close air support naturally loses a lot of planes to MANPADS and air-defense guns, especially considering that Su-30/35/34 aren't armored like Su-25, Russia has lost a lot of those Su-30/35/34. Also using mostly unguided bombs (despite all the Russian propaganda claims of using only "high-precision weapons"- just look at that glorious state TV report on using "high-precision" where they show plane loaded only with FAB-250 unguided bombs at timestamp 24:55 of https://rutube.ru/video/4b400cbcfbbd6c1b730b5e80138fe598/ https://rutube.ru/video/4b400cbcfbbd6c1b730b5e80138fe598/ - and they even show supposed launch of a ground attack missile from that plane loaded only with those bombs :) Russian planes have had to go pretty low to achieve any resemblance of close hits - it is the city bombing that they do from 8-10 km altitude while bombing any specific target requires to go very low where they again lose to MANPADS and other air-defenses. As a result of high losses (close to 100 planes out of supposedly 1300 combat capable planes that the whole Russia has - that 1300 is an official number, divide by 2x at least to get real number :) Russia has significantly scaled back the close air support and decreased air superiority missions.
- greedo 5y ago
  The RuAF has been using the SU-25 Frogfoot in Ukraine. They've lost roughly 9 or so, more than any other aircraft type. https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-docum...

323 5y ago

Maybe they are just not running them? There are a lot of military experts saying that they see baffling examples of incompetence from the Russian army in this war, failing at really basic stuff. I'm no military expert, but I've seen Russian infantry videos where they are basically running around like headless chickens as the saying goes, like they received no training at all.

vondur 5y ago

Russia is a pale shadow of the Soviet Union in its heyday.

spamizbad 5y ago

These are very advanced machines that require regular maintenance and a well-trained and crew to operate. Gaps in maintenance, training, and even poor communication with command will greatly reduce their efficacy.

golergka 5y ago

Among other explanations that are just as true, corruption had to be mentioned. Russian officers are ridiculously badly paid and not respected on the society, and they certainly didn't anticipate a large war that would catch them with their pants down.

mst 5y ago

All else aside (since other commenters have covered every other thought I had and more) it's worth noting that Ukraine is also fielding S300 class kit and this has likely been a significant contributor to Russian aircraft losses. It also appears that in the Russian case either the S300 itself or the training of the crews has not been particularly effective against the Bayraktar drones, which I'm not aware of Russia having an equivalent of to use against the Ukrainians.