3 ms·

Governments are failing to understand global catastrophic risks (2019)

28 points by takiwatanga 5y ago

areoform 5y ago
Most scientists are failing to communicate them, sacrificing their scientific integrity at the altar of political acceptability. I am unsure if most people are aware of this, but most of the scientists whose work is consumed by the IPCC + those working on the models published by the IPCC know that the "consensus" view is wrong. Except, it's wrong in the opposite direction to what certain people want it to be. The reality is far worse than what the models suggest. The models still don't include the loss of permafrost - what's worse is that they don't model the non-linearity of permafrost loss, methane emission, that then sparks more warming and more permafrost loss etc, https://www.woodwellclimate.org/review-of-permafrost-science-in-ipccs-ar6-wg1/ https://www.woodwellclimate.org/review-of-permafrost-science... nor do they include effects of how the climate would change of ocean conveyor currents shut down (AMOC in particular is of significant interest, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/11/12/concern-grows-over-atlantic-ocean-conveyor-belt-shutdown https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/11/12/concern-grows-over... ). They also don't model the melting and release of clathrates from the ocean, or the effects of ocean acidification, and several other non-linear processes. Another significant issue that they haven't adequately addressed is the loss of ice around the arctic, particularly the recent failure in the formation of sea ice in the Laptev sea. It's the most damning graph that I'm aware of, https://twitter.com/ZLabe/status/1431688657245589505 https://twitter.com/ZLabe/status/1431688657245589505 - the main ice feeding region for the arctic remains unfrozen for longer, and longer, and takes longer to refreeze. Leading to greater sunlight absorption that further increases the temperature of the waters due to the decrease in albedo, https://www.ipcc.ch/srocc/chapter/chapter-3-2/ https://www.ipcc.ch/srocc/chapter/chapter-3-2/ - but the feedback loop itself isn't fully modeled in the reports that the IPCC publishes. I might be wrong on this count, but it is what I recall from my prior reading, https://archive.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/tar/wg1/295.htm https://archive.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/tar/wg1/295.htm I had a very polite, but heated argument with one of the scientists involved and he told me that they aren't going to include that, because if they do, the numbers will look much worse and they'll be dismissed as apocalyptic loons. Which brings us to the point that Dr Feynman made in his remarks about the Challenger disaster, "For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for nature cannot be fooled." For our civilization to be successful, we must face this this reality. We must realize that nature cannot be fooled. Nature is relentless. It does not care about our petty human needs to be respectable. It simply is.
- hn_version_0023 5y ago
  > For our civilization to be successful in facing this reality, we must realize that nature cannot be fooled. Nature is relentless. It does not care about our petty human needs to be respectable. It simply is. This is why I have no hope. The powers-that-be will never acknowledge this. It’s already too late.
- dqpb 5y ago
  HBO’s Chernobyl does an excellent job illustrating this dynamic.
- nonrandomstring 5y ago
  The article talks about all threats, not just climate, and notes the same pattern of avoidance and rationalisation as you mention in your comments. My focus is on 'cyber' [1] where I see looming catastrophe for all the same reasons - that there's an entire industry depending on convincing us that nothing is wrong. Another respondent mentions the structural group dynamics in regard to the HBO Chernobyl dramatisation (which I have on good authority is a realistic take on Soviet era dynamics). Feynman was always pointing out the gap between the world as it is and the world as we wish it to be to suit our expedient economic and political ends. His magic-show with the O-rings at the Challenger hearing is a masterpiece of calm iconoclasm of smug idiocracy. But there aren't enough Feynmans, so reality is not taking precedence over public relations, especially in tech. There are plenty of people right here who are happily, silently going along with creating our societal downfall through reckless projects like a "fully cashless economy" and an unnecessary, unchecked, and largely unwanted "Internet of Things". But you cannot convince people whose salary depends on them not being convinced. [1] https://www.linuxtoday.com/developer/why-we-cant-teach-cybersecurity/ https://www.linuxtoday.com/developer/why-we-cant-teach-cyber...
- GoodJokes 5y ago
  You are talking about tipping points and those are most certainly covered and inserted into IPCC models. AMOC and permafrost has been covered in the most recent report. You either are getting your shit from Reddit or worse. I highly question the veracity of your comment. It looks like copy pasta from one of climate subreddits.
entropicgravity 5y ago
The unknown unknowns will always be with us.

28 points by takiwatanga 5y ago

Most scientists are failing to communicate them, sacrificing their scientific integrity at the altar of political acceptability. I am unsure if most people are aware of this, but most of the scientists whose work is consumed by the IPCC + those working on the models published by the IPCC know that the "consensus" view is wrong. Except, it's wrong in the opposite direction to what certain people want it to be. The reality is far worse than what the models suggest. The models still don't include the loss of permafrost - what's worse is that they don't model the non-linearity of permafrost loss, methane emission, that then sparks more warming and more permafrost loss etc, https://www.woodwellclimate.org/review-of-permafrost-science-in-ipccs-ar6-wg1/ https://www.woodwellclimate.org/review-of-permafrost-science... nor do they include effects of how the climate would change of ocean conveyor currents shut down (AMOC in particular is of significant interest, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/11/12/concern-grows-over-atlantic-ocean-conveyor-belt-shutdown https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/11/12/concern-grows-over... ). They also don't model the melting and release of clathrates from the ocean, or the effects of ocean acidification, and several other non-linear processes. Another significant issue that they haven't adequately addressed is the loss of ice around the arctic, particularly the recent failure in the formation of sea ice in the Laptev sea. It's the most damning graph that I'm aware of, https://twitter.com/ZLabe/status/1431688657245589505 https://twitter.com/ZLabe/status/1431688657245589505 - the main ice feeding region for the arctic remains unfrozen for longer, and longer, and takes longer to refreeze. Leading to greater sunlight absorption that further increases the temperature of the waters due to the decrease in albedo, https://www.ipcc.ch/srocc/chapter/chapter-3-2/ https://www.ipcc.ch/srocc/chapter/chapter-3-2/ - but the feedback loop itself isn't fully modeled in the reports that the IPCC publishes. I might be wrong on this count, but it is what I recall from my prior reading, https://archive.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/tar/wg1/295.htm https://archive.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/tar/wg1/295.htm I had a very polite, but heated argument with one of the scientists involved and he told me that they aren't going to include that, because if they do, the numbers will look much worse and they'll be dismissed as apocalyptic loons. Which brings us to the point that Dr Feynman made in his remarks about the Challenger disaster, "For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for nature cannot be fooled." For our civilization to be successful, we must face this this reality. We must realize that nature cannot be fooled. Nature is relentless. It does not care about our petty human needs to be respectable. It simply is.

hn_version_0023 5y ago
> For our civilization to be successful in facing this reality, we must realize that nature cannot be fooled. Nature is relentless. It does not care about our petty human needs to be respectable. It simply is. This is why I have no hope. The powers-that-be will never acknowledge this. It’s already too late.
dqpb 5y ago
HBO’s Chernobyl does an excellent job illustrating this dynamic.
nonrandomstring 5y ago
The article talks about all threats, not just climate, and notes the same pattern of avoidance and rationalisation as you mention in your comments. My focus is on 'cyber' [1] where I see looming catastrophe for all the same reasons - that there's an entire industry depending on convincing us that nothing is wrong. Another respondent mentions the structural group dynamics in regard to the HBO Chernobyl dramatisation (which I have on good authority is a realistic take on Soviet era dynamics). Feynman was always pointing out the gap between the world as it is and the world as we wish it to be to suit our expedient economic and political ends. His magic-show with the O-rings at the Challenger hearing is a masterpiece of calm iconoclasm of smug idiocracy. But there aren't enough Feynmans, so reality is not taking precedence over public relations, especially in tech. There are plenty of people right here who are happily, silently going along with creating our societal downfall through reckless projects like a "fully cashless economy" and an unnecessary, unchecked, and largely unwanted "Internet of Things". But you cannot convince people whose salary depends on them not being convinced. [1] https://www.linuxtoday.com/developer/why-we-cant-teach-cybersecurity/ https://www.linuxtoday.com/developer/why-we-cant-teach-cyber...
GoodJokes 5y ago
You are talking about tipping points and those are most certainly covered and inserted into IPCC models. AMOC and permafrost has been covered in the most recent report. You either are getting your shit from Reddit or worse. I highly question the veracity of your comment. It looks like copy pasta from one of climate subreddits.

entropicgravity 5y ago

The unknown unknowns will always be with us.