5 ms·

It's fine for demand to go up as long as supply can keep up -- which unfortunately hasn't for decades thanks to NIMBYs https://financialpost.com/news/economy/o

It's fine for demand to go up as long as supply can keep up -- which unfortunately hasn't for decades thanks to NIMBYs https://financialpost.com/news/economy/ontario-alberta-and-manitoba-lead-the-provinces-in-canadas-chronic-housing-shortage-says-scotiabank https://financialpost.com/news/economy/ontario-alberta-and-m... https://www.livabl.com/2021/05/canada-housing-market-most-undersupplied-g7.html https://www.livabl.com/2021/05/canada-housing-market-most-un... Look at any satellite or aerial view of Vancouver or Toronto and it's basically all SFH https://www.reddit.com/r/toronto/comments/twj89s/yonge_st_from_lake_ontario_to_lake_simcoe/ https://www.reddit.com/r/toronto/comments/twj89s/yonge_st_fr...

zukzuk 5y ago
Everyone's got their pet theory on what's behind Canada's housing crisis. In reality it's probably a combination of different factors. The NIMBY theory is probably part of it, but definitely not the full story. For one, Toronto and Vancouver's population density is on par with major european cities (Toronto is about the same as Berlin, and Vancouver same as London). Arguably most european cities have similar affordability problems, but if NIMBYism is an issue, it's not particular to Canadian cities. My pet theory is it all comes down to money supply. All that money generated out of nothing through quantitative easing over the last decade+ had to end up somewhere, and it's settled in real estate and equities. If that's the case, then the end of QE and "balance sheet pruning" is going to put a stop to this... and likely pop a giant bubble in the process. That's a scary prospect for countries like Canada and New Zealand, where RE has played such a huge part in inflating wealth.
- trinovantes 5y ago
  I agree NIMBY is definitely not a Canada-exclusive thing. I would say that it's far more prevalent in western countries. Japan's zoning laws are at the federal level so despite growing population in Tokyo metro, they have comparatively less affordability issues. It's crazy (as a Canadian) to think that Tokyo's central wards have roughly 3x the population and same land area as Toronto but are still able to have sub $1 million detached homes.
Nathanael_M 5y ago
I live in a small-mid sized city in Ontario. The biggest issue with our lack of housing is a hugely corrupt local government that has introduced a TON of extra fines and red tape to the building process. Plus there's a tremendous amount of "I'll scratch your back, you scratch mine" with the local building companies (of which there are functionally two). This all means that it's prohibitively difficult and expensive for any new developers to enter the scene and the best margins exist in the $500k+ range for new houses. It's a nightmare.

zukzuk 5y ago

Everyone's got their pet theory on what's behind Canada's housing crisis. In reality it's probably a combination of different factors. The NIMBY theory is probably part of it, but definitely not the full story. For one, Toronto and Vancouver's population density is on par with major european cities (Toronto is about the same as Berlin, and Vancouver same as London). Arguably most european cities have similar affordability problems, but if NIMBYism is an issue, it's not particular to Canadian cities. My pet theory is it all comes down to money supply. All that money generated out of nothing through quantitative easing over the last decade+ had to end up somewhere, and it's settled in real estate and equities. If that's the case, then the end of QE and "balance sheet pruning" is going to put a stop to this... and likely pop a giant bubble in the process. That's a scary prospect for countries like Canada and New Zealand, where RE has played such a huge part in inflating wealth.

trinovantes 5y ago
I agree NIMBY is definitely not a Canada-exclusive thing. I would say that it's far more prevalent in western countries. Japan's zoning laws are at the federal level so despite growing population in Tokyo metro, they have comparatively less affordability issues. It's crazy (as a Canadian) to think that Tokyo's central wards have roughly 3x the population and same land area as Toronto but are still able to have sub $1 million detached homes.

Nathanael_M 5y ago

I live in a small-mid sized city in Ontario. The biggest issue with our lack of housing is a hugely corrupt local government that has introduced a TON of extra fines and red tape to the building process. Plus there's a tremendous amount of "I'll scratch your back, you scratch mine" with the local building companies (of which there are functionally two). This all means that it's prohibitively difficult and expensive for any new developers to enter the scene and the best margins exist in the $500k+ range for new houses. It's a nightmare.