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> Or is it simply that the domain experts are overwhelmed with noise We have learned that while medical doctors are domain experts in treating diseases, they a
by sampo 5y ago
> Or is it simply that the domain experts are overwhelmed with noise
We have learned that while medical doctors are domain experts in treating diseases, they are not domain experts in how infectious diseases spread around. Some doctors follow the front lines of science, whereas other doctors refuse to update their knowledge, and stick to what their old textbooks say.
And we have learned that when it comes to airborne diseases, even epidemiologists are not domain experts. Epidemiologist are more trained in statistics and abstract mathematical models. With statistics, they know how to observe epidemics. With mathematical models, that can make bad predictions on how the epidemic progresses, but these predictions turned out to be wrong more often than not. Now nobody makes these predictions anymore, they have lost credibility.
But they are not trained in physics to actually understand the physical mechanisms of how the virus can spread from one person to others.
And that public health is also a matter of economics and engineering, and again medical doctors are not good domain experts here. Medical doctors can advice you not to drink dirty water, but population scale water hygiene is a matter of civil engineering. If we want air hygiene, we have to turn to engineers.
- spookthesunset 5y ago> Epidemiologist are more trained in statistics and abstract mathematical models. And they are pretty bad at that too… their models have been horrifically bad. Most of them seemed designed to show the absolute worst case (see all the hockey stick charts these people published)…