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I think anybody with a feeling to go with the words 'exponential growth' could tell that this virus was going to be a huge problem from very early on. That tur

I think anybody with a feeling to go with the words 'exponential growth' could tell that this virus was going to be a huge problem from very early on. That turned out to be a surprisingly small minority.

prox 5y ago
Yeah, that was my thinking as well. China was late to react (like ages) and then you could see that China could not contain it. If China can’t, few others who can. What is still a shame is that no ventilation standards have been raised by law because of lobbying. It would make a lot of difference probably of what I read by experts.
bertjk 5y ago
Every infectious disease spreads exponentially, but not all of them turn into pandemics.
- pasabagi 5y ago
  I guess, but there were loads of things about this disease that made it stand out right from the start. The bad timing (before chinese new year), low lethality, high transmission rates, high asymptomatic rates, all made it pretty clear even to non-experts that this was going to be a really big deal. Certainly, after the outbreak escaped China, the only thing I remember finding surprising about the pandemic was how badly the West handled it. A lot of people had exactly the same takeaway.
spookthesunset 5y ago
Except they don’t spread exponentially like some startup hockey stick growth chart. They might start exponentially but eventually it gets harder and harder to find the next host to the spread peaks and eventually declines. The chart of a virus spread is not really exponential at all. Way too many people took “exponential growth” way to literally, causing panic and mayhem.
- pasabagi 5y ago
  I had a look at your post history, and obviously, I don't agree with your ideas about COVID - but I'm curious, what got you so emotionally engaged? I've had some relatives die, I've spent large portions of the pandemic cooped up inside with kids, I've missed funerals, etc - and I think earlier in the pandemic, I was probably about as emotionally engaged as you are, except, in the other direction. Now, I don't really have much of an opinion about it. Why do you continue to care?

prox 5y ago

Yeah, that was my thinking as well. China was late to react (like ages) and then you could see that China could not contain it. If China can’t, few others who can. What is still a shame is that no ventilation standards have been raised by law because of lobbying. It would make a lot of difference probably of what I read by experts.

bertjk 5y ago

Every infectious disease spreads exponentially, but not all of them turn into pandemics.

pasabagi 5y ago
I guess, but there were loads of things about this disease that made it stand out right from the start. The bad timing (before chinese new year), low lethality, high transmission rates, high asymptomatic rates, all made it pretty clear even to non-experts that this was going to be a really big deal. Certainly, after the outbreak escaped China, the only thing I remember finding surprising about the pandemic was how badly the West handled it. A lot of people had exactly the same takeaway.

spookthesunset 5y ago

Except they don’t spread exponentially like some startup hockey stick growth chart. They might start exponentially but eventually it gets harder and harder to find the next host to the spread peaks and eventually declines. The chart of a virus spread is not really exponential at all. Way too many people took “exponential growth” way to literally, causing panic and mayhem.

pasabagi 5y ago
I had a look at your post history, and obviously, I don't agree with your ideas about COVID - but I'm curious, what got you so emotionally engaged? I've had some relatives die, I've spent large portions of the pandemic cooped up inside with kids, I've missed funerals, etc - and I think earlier in the pandemic, I was probably about as emotionally engaged as you are, except, in the other direction. Now, I don't really have much of an opinion about it. Why do you continue to care?