5 ms·

No, because that's exactly what happened in Texas during their winter storm crisis.

by kodah 5y ago

dpierce9 5y ago
That was only part of the Texas issue. Many Nat Gas plants were also offline. For nearly the whole time Nat Gas outages were 2x wind outages according to ERCOT. Here is their own report: https://www.ercot.com/files/docs/2021/04/28/ERCOT_Winter_Storm_Generator_Outages_By_Cause_Updated_Report_4.27.21.pdf https://www.ercot.com/files/docs/2021/04/28/ERCOT_Winter_Sto...
- kodah 5y ago
  Correct, they were, which reinforces the point.
  - chess_buster 5y ago
    Buuuut... the problem is that they didn't weather proof their system even though they were informend about the problems this could cause in winter storm scenarios. The weatherproofed windpower plants as well als gas plants function very well in Germany, Norway, etc. even though it is often a lot colder.
    - zdragnar 5y ago
      Do weatherproofed wind turbines consume electricity? A common complaint around here is that they need to keep the blades heated to avoid frost and ice buildup, even when the wind is not blowing (we do have a lot of still days in winter). In bad conditions, if that is still the case, having wind turbines connected to the grid might be worse than having none.
      - atoav 5y ago
        In bad conditions this is the case foe every power plant. The good thing is, that wind turbines are highly distributed, so the chance for every single one being in bad conditions is slim.
sorenbs 5y ago
This is factually incorrect. The winter issue in Texas was almost exclusively lack of winterization of thermal plants as well as a market setup that was unable to predict and react to the weather. Wind generated more electricity during the event than what was committed in the market, and as such had no negative influence.
- kodah 5y ago
  This is factually incorrect. Winterization is about half of the issues faced. Page 4 highlights the causes pretty well. https://www.ercot.com/files/docs/2021/04/28/ERCOT_Winter_Storm_Generator_Outages_By_Cause_Updated_Report_4.27.21.pdf https://www.ercot.com/files/docs/2021/04/28/ERCOT_Winter_Sto...
  - dpierce9 5y ago
    Page 16 is quite clear: the vast majority of missing generation capacity was natural gas. The lost wind capacity was comparable to lost coal capacity. Whether the cause is categorized as equipment failure, weather, or fuel availability, the most affected generation category was natural gas.
    - kodah 5y ago
      The point of my comment was that the supply chain issue was significant, sorenbs is saying winterization is the exclusive cause. The ERCOT report doesn't support what they had to say. Winterization accounts for ~12-15 GW while supply chain is responsible for ~5-8 GW. (Page 23-25) The comment I originally responded to said: > Isn't it a bit naive to assume the planers of these expansions didn't at one point or another had that exact thought themselves? The answer is no, it is not naive to assume that they didn't think about these things, because even in a state like Texas where energy is king it was not fully thought out. Edit: Also to be clear, I'm not ragging on Texas. I love the people of Texas and I miss being there, but I think the state has some important lessons to pay attention to and learn from.
      - 5y ago

No, because that's exactly what happened in Texas during their winter storm crisis.

by kodah 5y ago

No, because that's exactly what happened in Texas during their winter storm crisis.

That was only part of the Texas issue. Many Nat Gas plants were also offline. For nearly the whole time Nat Gas outages were 2x wind outages according to ERCOT. Here is their own report: https://www.ercot.com/files/docs/2021/04/28/ERCOT_Winter_Storm_Generator_Outages_By_Cause_Updated_Report_4.27.21.pdf https://www.ercot.com/files/docs/2021/04/28/ERCOT_Winter_Sto...

kodah 5y ago
Correct, they were, which reinforces the point.
- chess_buster 5y ago
  Buuuut... the problem is that they didn't weather proof their system even though they were informend about the problems this could cause in winter storm scenarios. The weatherproofed windpower plants as well als gas plants function very well in Germany, Norway, etc. even though it is often a lot colder.
  - zdragnar 5y ago
    Do weatherproofed wind turbines consume electricity? A common complaint around here is that they need to keep the blades heated to avoid frost and ice buildup, even when the wind is not blowing (we do have a lot of still days in winter). In bad conditions, if that is still the case, having wind turbines connected to the grid might be worse than having none.
    - atoav 5y ago
      In bad conditions this is the case foe every power plant. The good thing is, that wind turbines are highly distributed, so the chance for every single one being in bad conditions is slim.

sorenbs 5y ago

This is factually incorrect. The winter issue in Texas was almost exclusively lack of winterization of thermal plants as well as a market setup that was unable to predict and react to the weather. Wind generated more electricity during the event than what was committed in the market, and as such had no negative influence.

kodah 5y ago
This is factually incorrect. Winterization is about half of the issues faced. Page 4 highlights the causes pretty well. https://www.ercot.com/files/docs/2021/04/28/ERCOT_Winter_Storm_Generator_Outages_By_Cause_Updated_Report_4.27.21.pdf https://www.ercot.com/files/docs/2021/04/28/ERCOT_Winter_Sto...
- dpierce9 5y ago
  Page 16 is quite clear: the vast majority of missing generation capacity was natural gas. The lost wind capacity was comparable to lost coal capacity. Whether the cause is categorized as equipment failure, weather, or fuel availability, the most affected generation category was natural gas.
  - kodah 5y ago
    The point of my comment was that the supply chain issue was significant, sorenbs is saying winterization is the exclusive cause. The ERCOT report doesn't support what they had to say. Winterization accounts for ~12-15 GW while supply chain is responsible for ~5-8 GW. (Page 23-25) The comment I originally responded to said: > Isn't it a bit naive to assume the planers of these expansions didn't at one point or another had that exact thought themselves? The answer is no, it is not naive to assume that they didn't think about these things, because even in a state like Texas where energy is king it was not fully thought out. Edit: Also to be clear, I'm not ragging on Texas. I love the people of Texas and I miss being there, but I think the state has some important lessons to pay attention to and learn from.
    - 5y ago