I think we agree - I wasn't meaning to imply that I'm surely in the middle, mostly trying to be more clear about how unlikely it is to be early. Another way to

I think we agree - I wasn't meaning to imply that I'm surely in the middle, mostly trying to be more clear about how unlikely it is to be early. Another way to put it is to say that there's only 5% chance I'm in the first 5% of people, and 50% chance I'm in the last 50% (assuming uniform distribution, which, who knows). If I'm in the last 50%, then we don't have much time left. And yes, if everyone has these thoughts, then about 5% of people will be wrong when they think that surely they aren't in the first 5%. (And I'm giving you the benefit of the doubt that "between now and infinity" is hyperbole - percentiles of a uniform distribution like this don't make sense if there will truly be a countably infinite number of people. )