5 ms·

> That is, certainly, a recipe for catastrophic war. Climate change itself is probably a recipe for catastrophic war and the resurgence of fascism. There are e

> That is, certainly, a recipe for catastrophic war. Climate change itself is probably a recipe for catastrophic war and the resurgence of fascism. There are estimates as high as 1.2 billion for people that will be displaced by climate change[1]. Even a much smaller number of refugees from the middle east and South America has helped push politics in many western countries towards isolationism and increased xenophobia. What would 1.2 billion refugees do? [1] https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2021/06/climate-refugees-the-world-s-forgotten-victims/ https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2021/06/climate-refugees-the-...

throwaway599281 5y ago
>What would 1.2 billion refugees do? Stay in their countries and improve them just like Westerners do?
- geraneum 5y ago
  The irony! Aren’t the industrial countries the biggest contributors to climate change?
  - throwaway599281 5y ago
    And are also the leading countries promoting cleaner alternatives to all human activites. What you're missing is that if underdeveloped countries were even capable of reaching the same stage of development we and East Asian countries enjoy, they would contribute as much, and that is actually their goal.
    - geraneum 5y ago
      No matter how you try to warp the logic or the reality of the situation and regardless of the country or culture, the responsibility of dealing with the effects of climate change (or anything else) should be proportional to the contribution that each nation makes. Sure if any country starts to contribute more, they should also take more responsibility. You cannot for example tax someone on the amount of money that they hypothetically can have or want to have which you even claim they are not even capable of having.
    - triceratops 5y ago
      > And are also the leading countries promoting cleaner alternatives to all human activites. So are they going to give all those away for free to poor countries? And also pay for massive programs to recapture the carbon they've already emitted? And mitigate already-locked-in effects of climate change, such as drought and extreme weather? Those are the only conditions under which your "why don't they improve their own countries" suggestion is fair.
- ClumsyPilot 5y ago
  You do realise that it's Westerners causing climate change, not starving villagers in Sub-saharan africa? Some of the first refugees will be from California. The reservoids that are not at record-low took 20 years to fill, they are never coming back.
  - toomuchtodo 5y ago
    California has enough clean energy to desal for human consumption [1] [2]. Ag is another story, but no one needs to flee California due to water needs [3] (human consumption is ~10-20% of total use). Also, the regulation story of water for Ag in California is improving, albeit slowly [4]. [1] https://app.electricitymap.org/zone/US-CAL-CISO?wind=false&solar=false https://app.electricitymap.org/zone/US-CAL-CISO?wind=false&s... (Scroll to "Origin of electricity in the last 24 hours" in left nav; during daylight hours, 75%-90% of total generation are low carbon sources; and I expect that to hit 100% in the next 2-3 years based on CAISO's generator interconnect queue) [2] https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/images/figure_6_01_c.png https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/images/figure_6_01_c... (refer to California solar [yellow] and batteries [gray] coming online this year) [3] https://www.ppic.org/publication/water-use-in-california/ https://www.ppic.org/publication/water-use-in-california/ [4] https://www.npr.org/2021/10/07/1037369959/new-protections-for-californias-aquifers-are-reshaping-the-states-central-valley https://www.npr.org/2021/10/07/1037369959/new-protections-fo...
    - ClumsyPilot 5y ago
      But human consumption includes Agriculture, if a country is dependant on the food it grows and there is no water, you will have a famine. If they are just cash crops that you trade for food, you will also have a famine. All the argicultural land in california is about to become a lot less valuable. It's destruction of wealth and nature on a collosal scale. The idea that allowing climate change to continue is good for buinesss is idiotic, and could result in violence unseen since 1940's
      - sgath92 5y ago
        Human consumption includes some agriculture. You'd be surprised to learn what counts as agriculture for purposes of water in places like California. One example: Golf courses. Others; horse race tracks, horse farms, cemeteries. All kinds of places that produce ZERO crops for human consumption.
- ben_w 5y ago
  Humans are not fish, and cannot remain in place when farmland becomes shallow salt water ocean. Sea level rises are merely one of the things that can cause mass displacement, no matter how much other people moan about it. I’m fairly optimistic about the future — I see this warning from the UN and think “this degree of reduction in greenhouse gas emissions is achievable in this timeframe” — but even so I’m still expecting New Orleans and a significant depth of the Italian coast from roughly San Marino to Trieste to disappear.
jokethrowaway 5y ago
There is no chance 1.2B people will migrate to Europe. The problem is that, right now, EU countries are forced to accept poor immigrants and integration is not easy. Integration is not easy for a number of economical reasons and not due to xenophobia. EU economies, especially in the south, are not doing well. There are not a lot of jobs, life got progressively worse in the last 20 years, crisis after crisis. So naturally, migrants will end up working for 2€ per hour picking up tomatoes or selling drugs and stealing bikes. Eventually, it will become politically unsustainable and local populations will vote to quit the EU and stop the immigrants flow. The nordic countries have a rape problem linked to immigration. My grandma is afraid of walking in her own city. I'd say we're about 50% there. We already saw it happen in the UK. The only thing keeping the other countries in is that their economy are too weak to survive on their own and they came to rely on the single market.
- ClumsyPilot 5y ago
  > There is no chance 1.2B people will migrate to Europe. That is precisely why it will cause a catastrophic war -> do you expect them all to just lie down and die peacefully?
  - brimble 5y ago
    I'm convinced this is why so many rich folks have been buying land and citizenship in New Zealand. It's one of the nicest countries in the world that's also very hard to get to, without resources. They're preparing for the violence-tinged migration waves, by arranging to have somewhere to hide that's mostly unaffected.
    - colpabar 5y ago
      All the while telling us peons how important it is to embrace refugees.
      - perfecthjrjth 5y ago
        That's how things work in the real world: One uses truths to sell bullshit. NIMBYs bemoan that local school districts can't accommodate extra kids and that local roads can't support new traffic. Yes, they cite true facts to hide the reality that "they want to see their home prices accelerate". In this case, the elite (super wealthy and their cronies in politics, think tanks) tell us that embracing refugees help humanity, learning cultures, etc, while they purchase citizenship in, properties to live in, jets to fly to, New Zealand. These days, everyone uses truths, but see what they are hiding behind their truths!!
giardini 5y ago
"resurgence of fascism???!! [emphasis mine] WTF? Please explain, esp. why not instead a resurgence of [communism, religion, authoritarianism, Buddhism, Hinduism, wizardism a la Harry Potter, Pokemon-ism, etc, etc.] When I read a post containing such phrases, I am likely to suffer a severe attack of "give-a-sh*-ism" (as in "I don't give a sh* about this.")
- tucosan 5y ago
  look around you.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]

throwaway599281 5y ago

>What would 1.2 billion refugees do? Stay in their countries and improve them just like Westerners do?

geraneum 5y ago
The irony! Aren’t the industrial countries the biggest contributors to climate change?
- throwaway599281 5y ago
  And are also the leading countries promoting cleaner alternatives to all human activites. What you're missing is that if underdeveloped countries were even capable of reaching the same stage of development we and East Asian countries enjoy, they would contribute as much, and that is actually their goal.
  - geraneum 5y ago
    No matter how you try to warp the logic or the reality of the situation and regardless of the country or culture, the responsibility of dealing with the effects of climate change (or anything else) should be proportional to the contribution that each nation makes. Sure if any country starts to contribute more, they should also take more responsibility. You cannot for example tax someone on the amount of money that they hypothetically can have or want to have which you even claim they are not even capable of having.
  - triceratops 5y ago
    > And are also the leading countries promoting cleaner alternatives to all human activites. So are they going to give all those away for free to poor countries? And also pay for massive programs to recapture the carbon they've already emitted? And mitigate already-locked-in effects of climate change, such as drought and extreme weather? Those are the only conditions under which your "why don't they improve their own countries" suggestion is fair.
ClumsyPilot 5y ago
You do realise that it's Westerners causing climate change, not starving villagers in Sub-saharan africa? Some of the first refugees will be from California. The reservoids that are not at record-low took 20 years to fill, they are never coming back.
- toomuchtodo 5y ago
  California has enough clean energy to desal for human consumption [1] [2]. Ag is another story, but no one needs to flee California due to water needs [3] (human consumption is ~10-20% of total use). Also, the regulation story of water for Ag in California is improving, albeit slowly [4]. [1] https://app.electricitymap.org/zone/US-CAL-CISO?wind=false&solar=false https://app.electricitymap.org/zone/US-CAL-CISO?wind=false&s... (Scroll to "Origin of electricity in the last 24 hours" in left nav; during daylight hours, 75%-90% of total generation are low carbon sources; and I expect that to hit 100% in the next 2-3 years based on CAISO's generator interconnect queue) [2] https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/images/figure_6_01_c.png https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/images/figure_6_01_c... (refer to California solar [yellow] and batteries [gray] coming online this year) [3] https://www.ppic.org/publication/water-use-in-california/ https://www.ppic.org/publication/water-use-in-california/ [4] https://www.npr.org/2021/10/07/1037369959/new-protections-for-californias-aquifers-are-reshaping-the-states-central-valley https://www.npr.org/2021/10/07/1037369959/new-protections-fo...
  - ClumsyPilot 5y ago
    But human consumption includes Agriculture, if a country is dependant on the food it grows and there is no water, you will have a famine. If they are just cash crops that you trade for food, you will also have a famine. All the argicultural land in california is about to become a lot less valuable. It's destruction of wealth and nature on a collosal scale. The idea that allowing climate change to continue is good for buinesss is idiotic, and could result in violence unseen since 1940's
    - sgath92 5y ago
      Human consumption includes some agriculture. You'd be surprised to learn what counts as agriculture for purposes of water in places like California. One example: Golf courses. Others; horse race tracks, horse farms, cemeteries. All kinds of places that produce ZERO crops for human consumption.
ben_w 5y ago
Humans are not fish, and cannot remain in place when farmland becomes shallow salt water ocean. Sea level rises are merely one of the things that can cause mass displacement, no matter how much other people moan about it. I’m fairly optimistic about the future — I see this warning from the UN and think “this degree of reduction in greenhouse gas emissions is achievable in this timeframe” — but even so I’m still expecting New Orleans and a significant depth of the Italian coast from roughly San Marino to Trieste to disappear.

jokethrowaway 5y ago

There is no chance 1.2B people will migrate to Europe. The problem is that, right now, EU countries are forced to accept poor immigrants and integration is not easy. Integration is not easy for a number of economical reasons and not due to xenophobia. EU economies, especially in the south, are not doing well. There are not a lot of jobs, life got progressively worse in the last 20 years, crisis after crisis. So naturally, migrants will end up working for 2€ per hour picking up tomatoes or selling drugs and stealing bikes. Eventually, it will become politically unsustainable and local populations will vote to quit the EU and stop the immigrants flow. The nordic countries have a rape problem linked to immigration. My grandma is afraid of walking in her own city. I'd say we're about 50% there. We already saw it happen in the UK. The only thing keeping the other countries in is that their economy are too weak to survive on their own and they came to rely on the single market.

ClumsyPilot 5y ago
> There is no chance 1.2B people will migrate to Europe. That is precisely why it will cause a catastrophic war -> do you expect them all to just lie down and die peacefully?
- brimble 5y ago
  I'm convinced this is why so many rich folks have been buying land and citizenship in New Zealand. It's one of the nicest countries in the world that's also very hard to get to, without resources. They're preparing for the violence-tinged migration waves, by arranging to have somewhere to hide that's mostly unaffected.
  - colpabar 5y ago
    All the while telling us peons how important it is to embrace refugees.
    - perfecthjrjth 5y ago
      That's how things work in the real world: One uses truths to sell bullshit. NIMBYs bemoan that local school districts can't accommodate extra kids and that local roads can't support new traffic. Yes, they cite true facts to hide the reality that "they want to see their home prices accelerate". In this case, the elite (super wealthy and their cronies in politics, think tanks) tell us that embracing refugees help humanity, learning cultures, etc, while they purchase citizenship in, properties to live in, jets to fly to, New Zealand. These days, everyone uses truths, but see what they are hiding behind their truths!!

giardini 5y ago

"resurgence of fascism???!! [emphasis mine] WTF? Please explain, esp. why not instead a resurgence of [communism, religion, authoritarianism, Buddhism, Hinduism, wizardism a la Harry Potter, Pokemon-ism, etc, etc.] When I read a post containing such phrases, I am likely to suffer a severe attack of "give-a-sh*-ism" (as in "I don't give a sh* about this.")

tucosan 5y ago
look around you.
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]