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I’m interested in these as both a consumer and a contributor. However I haven’t found many interesting markets. Often are just markets on elections. Additional

I’m interested in these as both a consumer and a contributor. However I haven’t found many interesting markets. Often are just markets on elections. Additionally many seem to have very small max bet size. What markets have more interesting breadth of coverage + have decent betting limits? I had the impression cftc or sec limit this to avoid become a regulated security.

TheCowboy 5y ago
If your goal is making money, then that's different. I personally don't encourage people to get into the betting aspect unless you don't mind paying my rent, know what I mean? It's one of those "if it was easy everyone would be doing it" things. The limits on bet sizes only matter once you can demonstrate long-term profitability, IMHO. Since prediction skills are still applicable to basically everything, you're not 100% wasting your time just by testing your abilities on gjopen.com. If you want intellectual engagement and don't prioritize money, then you can find markets on any topics. Which is why I suggested gjopen.com, and if you are good enough then they will try to recruit you to their analytics platform. But, yes, politics via PredictIt has been the standard CFTC-approved platform. They're rumored to be working on a more general uncapped platform due to competition from Kalshi (next paragraph). A new YC startup, Kalshi.com, got CFTC approval for uncapped markets with no topic limitations. They only got up and running last year, so often the markets don't play as large with no betting limits even compared to PredictIt. We're hoping they get momentum, but they could be ahead of their time and give up before more widespread adoption takes off. There is also Polymarkets.com, but it's trying to operate the markets via blockchain. It's often not the greatest user experience for that reason, but they get more leeway on markets and are uncapped.
- quanto 5y ago
  which prediction market platform(s) do you use in order to make a living? As noted previously, the breadth of the topics and bet size caps seem to limit potential payouts.
  - TheCowboy 5y ago
    I use all of the above: PI, Kalshi, Poly It's not so much the caps that are a concern to me than the fact that these platforms haven't been around for a long time. There's no guarantee they will continue to always exist and also be as lucrative. As more money enters I'd expect ROIs to decrease and for it to take more capital to make the same amount of money. I prefer it more as a side hobby than something I have to do every day. It can be fun, but it's missing the satisfaction of building things or delivering something of value to customers that I'd get if I were still working for a company coding.
    - quanto 4y ago
      Working full-time in prediction markets is exciting. Congrats and thanks for your reply.
- ad 5y ago
  Did you ever get into Augur?
  - TheCowboy 5y ago
    No, there were flaws with the implementation that kept many of us away. We all felt vindicated when Poyo, a sketchy character we all knew about from PredictIt, tried scamming people who bet on the outcome of the 2018 elections.

TheCowboy 5y ago

If your goal is making money, then that's different. I personally don't encourage people to get into the betting aspect unless you don't mind paying my rent, know what I mean? It's one of those "if it was easy everyone would be doing it" things. The limits on bet sizes only matter once you can demonstrate long-term profitability, IMHO. Since prediction skills are still applicable to basically everything, you're not 100% wasting your time just by testing your abilities on gjopen.com. If you want intellectual engagement and don't prioritize money, then you can find markets on any topics. Which is why I suggested gjopen.com, and if you are good enough then they will try to recruit you to their analytics platform. But, yes, politics via PredictIt has been the standard CFTC-approved platform. They're rumored to be working on a more general uncapped platform due to competition from Kalshi (next paragraph). A new YC startup, Kalshi.com, got CFTC approval for uncapped markets with no topic limitations. They only got up and running last year, so often the markets don't play as large with no betting limits even compared to PredictIt. We're hoping they get momentum, but they could be ahead of their time and give up before more widespread adoption takes off. There is also Polymarkets.com, but it's trying to operate the markets via blockchain. It's often not the greatest user experience for that reason, but they get more leeway on markets and are uncapped.

quanto 5y ago
which prediction market platform(s) do you use in order to make a living? As noted previously, the breadth of the topics and bet size caps seem to limit potential payouts.
- TheCowboy 5y ago
  I use all of the above: PI, Kalshi, Poly It's not so much the caps that are a concern to me than the fact that these platforms haven't been around for a long time. There's no guarantee they will continue to always exist and also be as lucrative. As more money enters I'd expect ROIs to decrease and for it to take more capital to make the same amount of money. I prefer it more as a side hobby than something I have to do every day. It can be fun, but it's missing the satisfaction of building things or delivering something of value to customers that I'd get if I were still working for a company coding.
  - quanto 4y ago
    Working full-time in prediction markets is exciting. Congrats and thanks for your reply.
ad 5y ago
Did you ever get into Augur?
- TheCowboy 5y ago
  No, there were flaws with the implementation that kept many of us away. We all felt vindicated when Poyo, a sketchy character we all knew about from PredictIt, tried scamming people who bet on the outcome of the 2018 elections.