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I said you would not have to leave your chair, as in you are treating this like a game, as in you are not taking this seriously, as in you are prioritizing your
by periphrasis 5y ago
I said you would not have to leave your chair, as in you are treating this like a game, as in you are not taking this seriously, as in you are prioritizing your personal emotional satisfaction over any sort of analysis of strategic interest. What do you believe is at stake here that would justify dramatically increasing the probability of a strategic nuclear exchange? I agree that a strategic nuclear exchange is p<.5 in the event of a NATO-Russia war, but how high a probability should we tolerate before the risk-benefit analysis of nato intervention collapses? The end of civilization is an almost unbounded price to pay, and even at a very low probability of occurrence we would still be taking on an extraordinarily expensive risk. So what are we buying for that risk? That Russia loses this war? To the extent that their political objective was to turn Ukraine back into a satellite client state, they’ve already lost. Destruction of the Russian armed forces for a generation? The Ukrainians are already doing yeomans work there. A chance for regime change in Russia? If so we’d be increasing the probability of a strategic nuclear exchange well above .5 then. A chance to punish the cretins who bound and shot, and raped, and tortured civilians to include children? Laudable but many of the immediate perpetrators are likely already dead, and to be frank it’s generally not a good time to risk nuclear war when you are feeling personally outraged. So what then? A chance to feel like you fought the good fight? As others have noted you have every opportunity to personally go fight that fight without NATO involvement, particularly, but not necessarily, if you have infantry or medical training.
I know I’m being an antagonistic asshole, but I would genuinely be curious to know what precise benefit you think nato intervention would achieve and why you value that benefit so highly as to incur near incalculable risk. I’m assuming you haven’t done that analysis, but then I’m an asshole who may be selling you short.