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The basic fallacy in the writer's argument is that your odds of being prepared for a societal collapse are astronomically higher than your odds of needing an ai

by blagie 5y ago

The basic fallacy in the writer's argument is that your odds of being prepared for a societal collapse are astronomically higher than your odds of needing an air bag. The difference is distribution. With apocalyptic events (pandemic, war, coup, hurricane, etc.), 100% of the population is affected in any given region perhaps every 50-200 years on average. With serious car accidents, a fraction of a percent of the population is affected every day. We don't tend to prepare well for rare events (like wars, famines, plaques, etc.). We do for frequent low-probability ones. Indeed, we're probably most worried about things rare enough to make the news (like school shootings), as unlikely as they are.

dismantlethesun 5y ago
Panic rooms are all about being attacked in your own home. A general collapse of society isn’t required to use them. Even in the safest countries, you will still have a small percentage of home invasions, kidnappings, and burglaries. That’s why people have locked doors, alarm systems, barred windows, guard dogs, actual guards, electrified fences, and finally panic rooms if all of the above fails.
- blagie 5y ago
  Just for the record, history shows crises show up in even the safest countries. Some of these are slow and creeping, and some are rapid and sudden. On the other hand, if history is any indicator, you have maybe a 1/4 chance of having some regional, national, or global crisis situation hit during your lifetime. Many of those don't require a panic room, admittedly. My odds of being unsafe in my home under normal circumstances are small. I'm not going to argue that if you have a billion dollars, you shouldn't get a panic room. Kidnapping a billionaire is much more worthwhile than a normal bloke, and I have no idea what the risk are. For most people, though, the odds are very low. If I were rational, at my economic level, I'd have food stashed away, a few guns, medical supplies, and similar. However, I'm lazy. It's like backups. It's a good idea, but.... Richer people might have more, and poor people might have less. I've read about safety plans for rich people, and they're interesting. If you've got a few billion dollars, dropping a million or even a few million on a crisis plan is completely rational. Poor people, on the other hand, can't afford something like food+medicine stashed away (especially since they need to be rotated with expiration).

by blagie 5y ago

dismantlethesun 5y ago

Panic rooms are all about being attacked in your own home. A general collapse of society isn’t required to use them. Even in the safest countries, you will still have a small percentage of home invasions, kidnappings, and burglaries. That’s why people have locked doors, alarm systems, barred windows, guard dogs, actual guards, electrified fences, and finally panic rooms if all of the above fails.

blagie 5y ago
Just for the record, history shows crises show up in even the safest countries. Some of these are slow and creeping, and some are rapid and sudden. On the other hand, if history is any indicator, you have maybe a 1/4 chance of having some regional, national, or global crisis situation hit during your lifetime. Many of those don't require a panic room, admittedly. My odds of being unsafe in my home under normal circumstances are small. I'm not going to argue that if you have a billion dollars, you shouldn't get a panic room. Kidnapping a billionaire is much more worthwhile than a normal bloke, and I have no idea what the risk are. For most people, though, the odds are very low. If I were rational, at my economic level, I'd have food stashed away, a few guns, medical supplies, and similar. However, I'm lazy. It's like backups. It's a good idea, but.... Richer people might have more, and poor people might have less. I've read about safety plans for rich people, and they're interesting. If you've got a few billion dollars, dropping a million or even a few million on a crisis plan is completely rational. Poor people, on the other hand, can't afford something like food+medicine stashed away (especially since they need to be rotated with expiration).