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There's a false assumption that stopping oil and gas imports will somehow stop the invasion and funding of Russian army. It will not, so it's better to focus on

There's a false assumption that stopping oil and gas imports will somehow stop the invasion and funding of Russian army. It will not, so it's better to focus on more practical and sustainable steps.

belorn 5y ago
During the war with IS there were constantly talk about how funding terrorism goes directly into funding the wars, be that people who directly gave them money or people who bought their drugs. I also often see the police say things like "don't buy things from criminals, it directly fund more criminal activities". We have international agreements against blood diamonds and conflict resource, all focusing on eliminating the finance of those conducing wars. It seems that in every possible way where people are funding war and conflict, the message has been in the past 20-50 years that this is actually a problem that need to addressed. While cutting the funding doesn't imminently stop conflicts, or prevent terrorists from making home made bombs, giving them money does prolong conflicts and gives the warring faction more options to continue doing horrible acts of violence. Cutting the money flow also provide pressure on the targeted population to stop their leaders and forcing them to the peace table.
- ivan_gammel 5y ago
  This is just a theory that does not take into account the circumstances of the Russian invasion. In the long term, it does make sense to stop importing oil and gas from Russia to prevent the future aggression, because it will indeed weaken the regime. In the short term, if EU stops buying oil and gas immediately, Russia still has: 1) possibility to export to China and other non-aligned markets (many countries which abstained in UN vote, are the client states which will not support the embargo). 2) enough resources to continue funding military procurement for many months 3) semi-autonomous economy that will survive even total trade embargo with the West, albeit on a lower technology level The effects of oil and gas embargo will be felt by Russian population earliest by the end of summer, effectively being a punishment rather than a deterrent. We should aim to end the war long before that and stop talking about this and other populist but unrealistic ideas like no-fly zone.
  - belorn 5y ago
    I am not convinced. It still mean people will have blood on their hands when they knowingly are providing the funds for a war. It is a very dangerous bet to hope that the Russians won't have enough time to use the money, that peace will arrive before that funds reaches the military operations. People should aim to end the war before this summer, but what if it doesn't happen? That gas, oil and coal are means for missiles and hired mercenaries. How happy should German citizen be if journalists later traces the money from a fossil fuel transaction to weapons used in a war crime where citizens were tortured and killed? In the short term we are seeing employees at European harbors and other places being put to the moral dilemma of either refusing to work or continuing working with Russian transports, knowing that they are working directly with the economic side of the Russian military branch. Many do not want to have to look in the mirror in a few months, knowing what they did, knowing what they knew, feeling like they have blood on their hands. Saving jobs and saving the economy is a poor comfort when on the news they see ordinary citizens laying on the street with a bullet in the head. Every nation hope that wars will end in just a few days, weeks or months. Blitzkrieg. It will be over by the weekend. The Russian thought so when they entered Ukraine and they were wrong. It a nice aim to hope that the war will be long gone before the summer, but realistic there is a high risk that it won't. The assumption when funding war should be that the war isn't going to end.
    - ivan_gammel 5y ago
      >That gas, oil and coal are means for missiles and hired mercenaries. Russia is not a banana republic where you could possibly find the direct link between the export revenues and military expenses. This is not how Russian economy works, the picture is much more complicated. First of all, the revenue from oil and gas sales is collected in foreign currency. Russian budget receives the money in taxes paid by exporters, but these money must be converted first to rouble. The conversion rate can be regulated by the central bank through purchases and sales of the currency and they of course can print money when necessary. This means that this currency actually never reaches the recipients of the budget money and exchange rate can be adjusted to serve the needs of the economy. Second, Russia produces nearly all of its military equipment and pays for it in rouble. There's almost no mercenaries in this conflict, it is mostly regular army, which also receives their salaries in rouble. They have very low exposure to external economic shocks and if necessary can switch to the war economy mode at the cost of the rest of Russian population. Now, what happens if Russia stops exporting oil and gas to Europe? Just in the last year Russia collected 50% more money than it planned in the annual budget. The extra money are usually deposited in the Reserve Fund and National Wealth Fund and re-invested, but they can be used in crisis times. Basically, just in the last year Russia collected enough money to survive 6 months of oil and gas trade embargo (and this is 150% of its military budget). Let's say, some of these money are frozen on European and American bank accounts and cannot actually be used except for servicing the debt. Still plenty of these savings are still accessible. Besides that, Russian central bank can still print money to fund the war. This may result in even higher inflation, but the economic bloc of Russian government is extremely competent and can mitigate the impact on the population. Ordinary Russian people will inevitably notice the economic downturn, but their mentality is the mentality of survival and mobilization, plus the state propaganda can justify the means very convincingly and repressive apparatus can silence those who disagree. We are talking about many years of attrition until the economic situation becomes untolerable. No sanctions in the world will force Russian people to overthrow the government in the next year or two, just like they did not work for North Korea, Venezuela or Iran.

There's a false assumption that stopping oil and gas imports will somehow stop the invasion and funding of Russian army. It will not, so it's better to focus on more practical and sustainable steps.

belorn 5y ago

During the war with IS there were constantly talk about how funding terrorism goes directly into funding the wars, be that people who directly gave them money or people who bought their drugs. I also often see the police say things like "don't buy things from criminals, it directly fund more criminal activities". We have international agreements against blood diamonds and conflict resource, all focusing on eliminating the finance of those conducing wars. It seems that in every possible way where people are funding war and conflict, the message has been in the past 20-50 years that this is actually a problem that need to addressed. While cutting the funding doesn't imminently stop conflicts, or prevent terrorists from making home made bombs, giving them money does prolong conflicts and gives the warring faction more options to continue doing horrible acts of violence. Cutting the money flow also provide pressure on the targeted population to stop their leaders and forcing them to the peace table.

ivan_gammel 5y ago
This is just a theory that does not take into account the circumstances of the Russian invasion. In the long term, it does make sense to stop importing oil and gas from Russia to prevent the future aggression, because it will indeed weaken the regime. In the short term, if EU stops buying oil and gas immediately, Russia still has: 1) possibility to export to China and other non-aligned markets (many countries which abstained in UN vote, are the client states which will not support the embargo). 2) enough resources to continue funding military procurement for many months 3) semi-autonomous economy that will survive even total trade embargo with the West, albeit on a lower technology level The effects of oil and gas embargo will be felt by Russian population earliest by the end of summer, effectively being a punishment rather than a deterrent. We should aim to end the war long before that and stop talking about this and other populist but unrealistic ideas like no-fly zone.
- belorn 5y ago
  I am not convinced. It still mean people will have blood on their hands when they knowingly are providing the funds for a war. It is a very dangerous bet to hope that the Russians won't have enough time to use the money, that peace will arrive before that funds reaches the military operations. People should aim to end the war before this summer, but what if it doesn't happen? That gas, oil and coal are means for missiles and hired mercenaries. How happy should German citizen be if journalists later traces the money from a fossil fuel transaction to weapons used in a war crime where citizens were tortured and killed? In the short term we are seeing employees at European harbors and other places being put to the moral dilemma of either refusing to work or continuing working with Russian transports, knowing that they are working directly with the economic side of the Russian military branch. Many do not want to have to look in the mirror in a few months, knowing what they did, knowing what they knew, feeling like they have blood on their hands. Saving jobs and saving the economy is a poor comfort when on the news they see ordinary citizens laying on the street with a bullet in the head. Every nation hope that wars will end in just a few days, weeks or months. Blitzkrieg. It will be over by the weekend. The Russian thought so when they entered Ukraine and they were wrong. It a nice aim to hope that the war will be long gone before the summer, but realistic there is a high risk that it won't. The assumption when funding war should be that the war isn't going to end.
  - ivan_gammel 5y ago
    >That gas, oil and coal are means for missiles and hired mercenaries. Russia is not a banana republic where you could possibly find the direct link between the export revenues and military expenses. This is not how Russian economy works, the picture is much more complicated. First of all, the revenue from oil and gas sales is collected in foreign currency. Russian budget receives the money in taxes paid by exporters, but these money must be converted first to rouble. The conversion rate can be regulated by the central bank through purchases and sales of the currency and they of course can print money when necessary. This means that this currency actually never reaches the recipients of the budget money and exchange rate can be adjusted to serve the needs of the economy. Second, Russia produces nearly all of its military equipment and pays for it in rouble. There's almost no mercenaries in this conflict, it is mostly regular army, which also receives their salaries in rouble. They have very low exposure to external economic shocks and if necessary can switch to the war economy mode at the cost of the rest of Russian population. Now, what happens if Russia stops exporting oil and gas to Europe? Just in the last year Russia collected 50% more money than it planned in the annual budget. The extra money are usually deposited in the Reserve Fund and National Wealth Fund and re-invested, but they can be used in crisis times. Basically, just in the last year Russia collected enough money to survive 6 months of oil and gas trade embargo (and this is 150% of its military budget). Let's say, some of these money are frozen on European and American bank accounts and cannot actually be used except for servicing the debt. Still plenty of these savings are still accessible. Besides that, Russian central bank can still print money to fund the war. This may result in even higher inflation, but the economic bloc of Russian government is extremely competent and can mitigate the impact on the population. Ordinary Russian people will inevitably notice the economic downturn, but their mentality is the mentality of survival and mobilization, plus the state propaganda can justify the means very convincingly and repressive apparatus can silence those who disagree. We are talking about many years of attrition until the economic situation becomes untolerable. No sanctions in the world will force Russian people to overthrow the government in the next year or two, just like they did not work for North Korea, Venezuela or Iran.