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this! Yeah, this argument about the NATO threat is repeated ad nauseam because it superficially sounds like a reasonable justification: "they just had to defen

this! Yeah, this argument about the NATO threat is repeated ad nauseam because it superficially sounds like a reasonable justification: "they just had to defend themselves". But even if that was true, Otto von Bismarck said it well: "Preventive war is like committing suicide out of fear of death". Imagine an alternate universe where Ukraine joins EU and NATO and now russia faces a NATO "wall" on the west. In this alternate universe where Russia didn't initiate an aggression, the public opinion of most european countries is not particularly interested in military spending. Compare that with this universe; the city I live in in Italy is going to build a new military base and while some people will certainly complain, the backlash won't come close to a pre-war scenario. Now even the population feel it that the rules have changed. Effectively Putin has armed Europe to their teeth. What a perfect 4D chess move to protect Russian safety. And seriously, I yet have to understand what is the threat that "NATO" would pose to Russia. What should they be worried about? Are they afraid that one morning NATO will invade Russia? What for? This part of the scenario is so embarrassingly hand-wavy, seemingly imbued only of reverberance of a distant past. Or is it that Russia be afraid of Western values infecting Russia? In that case, what difference does it make how many neighbouring countries are NATO members? You can just decide to make your laws and your policies and live your life according to your chosen lifestyle (if your citizens so wish) Or is it perhaps that Russia used to be a super power and now it isn't anymore. The greatness past now must live again. Let's reclaim our destiny and all this bullshit. This not how civilised nations should be run. This is barbaric and should stop and sadly the only reason humanity has to put up with it is the nuclear arsenal.

danaris 5y ago
> Are they afraid that one morning NATO will invade Russia? From everything I've heard thus far, Putin is afraid that NATO will prevent him from reconstituting the USSR under him.
- saiya-jin 5y ago
  Well USSR is as dead as russian soldier somewhere in muddy Ukraine. There were good reasons why it broke down, and those reasons are still present. Its plain simple - nobody sane, moral and free wants to be in pact with russia. Who remains are dictators, bullies and murderers. Thank god Trump didn't succeed in effectively disbanding Nato. Imagine what Europe would look like now if that happened (as Bolton mentioned in cca 2018).
  - ericmay 5y ago
    Which we know, but apparently Putin doesn't. I think in one of his writings or a public speaking engagement he said "They're (Ukrainians) Russian even if they don't know it".
    - danaris 5y ago
      I read an article recently—which I'm afraid I can't find anymore—that posited that part of what's going on is that Putin, and some of the rest of Russia, has a rather surprisingly expansive view of what it means to be "Russian", combined with the belief that if one is, by that definition, Russian, it is good and right to be part of Mother Russia. It also pointed out that by extension, this means that anyone in Ukraine who does not believe that they are Russian (and thus does not want to be part of Russia) is either effectively insane, or some kind of seditious traitor (I don't remember the exact way that logic went in the article at this point). I don't know to what extent what it described is true (my guess is "somewhat, but not necessarily absolutely"), but it does seem to help explain some of what's going on.
      - ericmay 5y ago
        I agree and this is what I've read and listened to as well. (1) Putin tell us this is the case in his spoken words and in his written words and actions. From an economic standpoint, or the standpoint that war is bad and should be avoided this obviously looks insane to you and I. But if you have different motivations, such as you and others described, it could look perfectly rational. It's all about the parameter space you operate in that determines your actions. (1) Ezra Klein has some fantastic podcast episodes about this - let me know if you'd like a suggestion or two
  - flavius29663 5y ago
    > Thank god Trump didn't succeed in effectively disbanding Nato. Imagine what Europe would look like now if that happened (as Bolton mentioned in cca 2018). This take bothers me, it's a sound bite repeated at nauseam with no backing what so ever. As a Romanian, I kept a close watch on US politics in Eastern Europe. Nothing that Trump did was pointing to disbanding NATO, on the contrary, he increased the US presence in Eastern Europe and was tougher on Putin than Obama was. Why do you think Russia-haters Poland began to like the US so much under Trump? https://notesfrompoland.com/2020/01/12/poland-the-only-european-country-in-which-a-majority-have-confidence-in-trump/ https://notesfrompoland.com/2020/01/12/poland-the-only-europ... I feel like this is like a propaganda take: he forced countries to increase NATO spending, but somehow he wanted to weaken NATO? He wanted Germany and Europe off of Russian gas, even blocking Nord Stream2 (upsetting the Germans), but somehow he was working for Putin? Btw, Biden unblocked NS2 in his first week in office, for no good reason. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M5MJEMHZZsI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M5MJEMHZZsI
throwaway290 5y ago
> Imagine an alternate universe where Ukraine joins EU and NATO and now russia faces a NATO "wall" on the west. if nato were at russian border then russia would in some ways be china's ukraine. possibly something they preferred to avoid
- ithkuil 5y ago
  But NATO is already at russian border. Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are NATO members since 2004. Also, if russia annexes Ukraine (because, remember "Ukraine doesn't exist, they all just russians") then suddenly the number of NATO members that would share the border with Russia will include Poland and Hungary (members since 1999), Slovakia and Romania (members since 2004). I don't think it works like that; it's not Risk.

danaris 5y ago

> Are they afraid that one morning NATO will invade Russia? From everything I've heard thus far, Putin is afraid that NATO will prevent him from reconstituting the USSR under him.

saiya-jin 5y ago
Well USSR is as dead as russian soldier somewhere in muddy Ukraine. There were good reasons why it broke down, and those reasons are still present. Its plain simple - nobody sane, moral and free wants to be in pact with russia. Who remains are dictators, bullies and murderers. Thank god Trump didn't succeed in effectively disbanding Nato. Imagine what Europe would look like now if that happened (as Bolton mentioned in cca 2018).
- ericmay 5y ago
  Which we know, but apparently Putin doesn't. I think in one of his writings or a public speaking engagement he said "They're (Ukrainians) Russian even if they don't know it".
  - danaris 5y ago
    I read an article recently—which I'm afraid I can't find anymore—that posited that part of what's going on is that Putin, and some of the rest of Russia, has a rather surprisingly expansive view of what it means to be "Russian", combined with the belief that if one is, by that definition, Russian, it is good and right to be part of Mother Russia. It also pointed out that by extension, this means that anyone in Ukraine who does not believe that they are Russian (and thus does not want to be part of Russia) is either effectively insane, or some kind of seditious traitor (I don't remember the exact way that logic went in the article at this point). I don't know to what extent what it described is true (my guess is "somewhat, but not necessarily absolutely"), but it does seem to help explain some of what's going on.
    - ericmay 5y ago
      I agree and this is what I've read and listened to as well. (1) Putin tell us this is the case in his spoken words and in his written words and actions. From an economic standpoint, or the standpoint that war is bad and should be avoided this obviously looks insane to you and I. But if you have different motivations, such as you and others described, it could look perfectly rational. It's all about the parameter space you operate in that determines your actions. (1) Ezra Klein has some fantastic podcast episodes about this - let me know if you'd like a suggestion or two
- flavius29663 5y ago
  > Thank god Trump didn't succeed in effectively disbanding Nato. Imagine what Europe would look like now if that happened (as Bolton mentioned in cca 2018). This take bothers me, it's a sound bite repeated at nauseam with no backing what so ever. As a Romanian, I kept a close watch on US politics in Eastern Europe. Nothing that Trump did was pointing to disbanding NATO, on the contrary, he increased the US presence in Eastern Europe and was tougher on Putin than Obama was. Why do you think Russia-haters Poland began to like the US so much under Trump? https://notesfrompoland.com/2020/01/12/poland-the-only-european-country-in-which-a-majority-have-confidence-in-trump/ https://notesfrompoland.com/2020/01/12/poland-the-only-europ... I feel like this is like a propaganda take: he forced countries to increase NATO spending, but somehow he wanted to weaken NATO? He wanted Germany and Europe off of Russian gas, even blocking Nord Stream2 (upsetting the Germans), but somehow he was working for Putin? Btw, Biden unblocked NS2 in his first week in office, for no good reason. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M5MJEMHZZsI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M5MJEMHZZsI

throwaway290 5y ago

> Imagine an alternate universe where Ukraine joins EU and NATO and now russia faces a NATO "wall" on the west. if nato were at russian border then russia would in some ways be china's ukraine. possibly something they preferred to avoid

ithkuil 5y ago
But NATO is already at russian border. Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are NATO members since 2004. Also, if russia annexes Ukraine (because, remember "Ukraine doesn't exist, they all just russians") then suddenly the number of NATO members that would share the border with Russia will include Poland and Hungary (members since 1999), Slovakia and Romania (members since 2004). I don't think it works like that; it's not Risk.