> Well to do consumers will keep buying Teslas (currently at a ~1.25M/year unit run rate, ramping to 2M units/year by EOY), and those cars will filter down to t

> Well to do consumers will keep buying Teslas (currently at a ~1.25M/year unit run rate, ramping to 2M units/year by EOY), and those cars will filter down to the used car market for price sensitive consumers over time Not likely. For starters, Tesla considers a bunch of options "bought" by the original owner to be tied to the owner, not the car: supercharging and full self driving, I believe? When Tesla finds out the car has been sold, they deactivate those options. No other car company does this (yet. They're all licking their chops and insanely jealous at what he's is getting away with.) Check out the out-of-warranty repair bills for cars like the Model X posted on youtube, twitter, reddit, etc. They are breathtakingly expensive. That's one thing when you're talking about an exotic sports car that only gets driven on nice days to car shows. It's another for a family SUV. Tesla's parts and body panel availability is terrible and hideously expensive Price sensitive consumers aren't going to put up with a 6 month wait for a quarter panel replacement that ends up costing thousands of dollars. Their gearbox reliability is terrible (or at least it was - on the Model S, it wasn't uncommon to bring your car in for routine service and find they had swapped out the entire motor drivetrain unit.) If that fails outside of warranty, you're likely looking at that totaling the car. The drivetrain units also have poor sealing around the speed sensor and that causes them to draw in water in anything from "big puddles" to "heavy rain", eventually destroying the motor drive electronics. They don't have a dealer network to distribute parts to independent repair shops and owners. They don't make parts available to wholesalers like Worldpac. Unlike (I believe) every other car manufacturer in the world, they require a VIN number before their parts department will even start talking to you. Ferrari might pull this, too. To the keyboard warriors mashing out angry responses: yes, I am aware that many dealer parts counters will ask you for a VIN number. That is done ONLY to assure you get the correct part. If you ask for a specific part number, you'll get it; the parts guy won't fight you beyond double-checking you're sure you know what you want, or looking into whether the part has been superseded. Tesla does it to get you the correct part but also to check their database to see if the car has been deemed (by them, not an insurance company or government) to be no longer safe to drive on the road. That is something no other car company will do. Again: Tesla parts department won't even talk to you if you have a VIN number they don't "like." Every day car companies sell car parts for cars people own that have been totalled or modded such they can't be street legal. Ford even sells production non-street-legal race cars. If you walk into an Chevy dealer they will happily sell you an entire engine and ECU, not caring whether it's going into a boat, a giant blender, a hovercraft (long as there are no eels), or a Yugo. They just care that your credit card goes through.