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Uninhabitable places in 2100 (interactive map)
- kaetemi 5y agoOuch. Not even 1fps on my phone.
- keithnz 5y agosuper smooth on a PC
- losteric 5y agoWhich phone? Silky smooth on pixel 4 using Firefox
- seizethegdgap 5y agoPixel 6 and Chrome, it's borderline un-scrollable.
- LAC-Tech 5y agoSuch inefficient use of our CPU cycles is only bringing this bleak reality closer!
- deleted 5y ago[deleted]
- mike-cardwell 5y agoWorked nicely using Firefox on my 11 year old Thinkpad running Debian 10, with only onboard Intel graphics
- ishtanbul 5y agowould be nice to see what cities are covered by the hexagons. or get info about a spot by clicking it...
- alar44 5y agoNearly unusable on my phone, Pixel 4.
- rbosinger 5y agoStrange. Works really well on my Pixel 4a.
- thriftwy 5y agoThe nice thing that we no longer have to care due to now-imminent nuclear war, have we?
- wongarsu 5y agoI don't think nuclear war is imminent at all, but having one would certainly help us reach our climate goals and give us a couple decades more time. On the other hand rebuilding from a war isn't conducive to using carbon-neutral energy sources or the kinds of infrastructure projects necessary to deal with the global warming effects we have already committed to.
- czbond 5y agoI think that was media war-mongering coupled with "Putin" big talk a la Trump style.
- cammikebrown 5y agoRuns fine on my iPhone 12
- mark_l_watson 5y agoI live in Arizona. Looks like Arizona and much of California is in the bad red zone. But, we are talking 2100, and, my 71st birthday is this year. BTW, the animation was fine on an iPad Pro.
- Ancalagon 5y agoIts mainly a water security issue, which I think with de-sal plants, rationing, and careful preservation of resources during surplus years would make the issue solvable in the long run for urban/suburban dwellers. Farming, however, will need to move. There was an article a while back talking about this, usually these water insecurity issues in the southwest are attributable to the unsustainable farming practices that go on here (because the year round sun and temperatures make farming convenient-despite lack of rainfall).
- notch656a 5y agoPrecisely. Agriculture uses something like 74% of the water supply in Arizona. 'Unable to grow desert cabbage in 2100' isn't as catchy a headline, however.
- czbond 5y agoPiggybacking your comment - I have been looking into personal water recycling systems as I live in the U.S. West that already has water issues due to growth. Example (not endorsement): https://www.hydraloop.com https://www.hydraloop.com
- wongarsu 5y agoMuch of California is in the red zone not only for the year 2100 but also for the present, mostly due to water stress. But with enough will industrial nations can largely spend their way out of all of these problems. Water can be brought from far away or desalinated from the ocean (both happen in California), heat can be fought off by being indoors with AC, sea level rise can be resisted with dikes, levees and pumps. But a lot of places in Africa and Asia won't have the money to do that.
- kennywinker 5y ago
- csdvrx 5y agoIt seems a bit biased to only list the places that will become uninhabitable due to say high temperature (the losses), without also listing the places that will become inhabitable thanks to the exact same thing (the gains) It's not clear to me that say an expansion of the Sahara or the desertic part of Australia won't be more than mitigated by the large amount of land currently covered by permafrost in Eurasia. A proper accounting of the phenomenon would show both, if only to refute my naive take.
- eropple 5y agoGiven that few people currently live in those places and national borders are unlikely to go away in the next hundred years (while there's a pretty clear path to ecofascist isolationism if we screw this up), perhaps "it's not optimistic enough" is a little bit of a reach of a criticism.
- csdvrx 5y ago> perhaps "it's not optimistic enough" is a little bit of a reach of a criticism. It's not about optimism, but being factual. > national borders are unlikely to go away in the next hundred years That's a strange take, because an argument often raised is that ecological migrants must be accommodated if entire countries become uninhabitable. As borders are just imaginary lines in the ground, if there is indeed a climate emergency, I do not see why say people from the Indian subcontinent (shown preeminently in the interactive map) would have no rights to settle in the empty eurasian steppes. Human lives matter more than imaginary lines caused by historical circumstances.
- eropple 5y ago> an argument often raised is that ecological migrants must be accommodated if entire countries become uninhabitable Yes. That is the argument. It is a just and reasonable argument. It does not mean that they will be accomodated. > if there is indeed a climate emergency, I do not see why say people from the Indian subcontinent, I do not see why say people from the Indian subcontinent (shown preeminently in the interactive map) would have no rights to settle in the empty eurasian steppes You don't see why? OK. Tell me: who is going to roll tanks into Russia on their behalf when Russia says no? An ecologically perilous future is one of harder borders and angrier international affairs and is yet another reason to avert it instead of leaping for the quick dopamine pings of "well, actually".
- losteric 5y agoSo Africa and Middle East regions, and India, Mexico, Indonesia are most at risk. Economic/climate immigration politics will get ugly
- deanCommie 5y agoNorthern India seems to be the area of the map most affected by the combined factors specifically heat and water shortage. It's also, by my unscientific estimation home to hundreds of millions of people. What...are we going to do about this? This seems like it could shape up to be a humanitarian crisis of completely incomparable proportions. Could a million people die from one heatwave at some point this century?
- csdvrx 5y ago> What...are we going to do about this? This seems like it could shape up to be a humanitarian crisis of completely incomparable proportions There are a lot of empty places on earth. Without looking far, just look at the midwest, Canada, Russia... There's even a whole continent that's currently frozen - Antarctica. If temperatures rise to the point of say making Antarctica livable, it would just be fair compensation to open it for settlement to every ecological migrant.
- tomrod 5y agoOnly if these places have the capital and resources to build. Water sourcing, soil generation, mining and extraction, energy generation, food production, and favorable trade conditions are bog standard needs. You can't just dump a million people somewhere after collecting them from off the street and hope for the best.
- csdvrx 5y ago> You can't just dump a million people somewhere after collecting them from off the street and hope for the best. Indeed. But look at the time it takes to create new infrastructure (large building, hospitals...) in China when it's needed right now. I believe we have the technology to make large metropolis in a matter of a few semesters. Even assuming a total lack of improvements, a few years is all it should take to tackle the emergency even if we are barely prepared and organized. And if there's only one thing to trust, when push come to shove, humanity always accomplish miracles. Crisis unites: people forget about old feuds to care about each other.
- irrational 5y agoI don't get it. Is there some way to rotate the globe? I'm using Firefox on a MacBook Pro, is it the browser I am using?
- gmuslera 5y agoLast year (not 2100) a town in Canada reached 49.5ºC, in an event when a lot of places in US got temperatures 35+ºC for a week or something like that. Siberia reached past June the 38ºC mark. Those are the heatwaves that we are getting right now, not in 80 years. Couple that with wet bulb conditions and we might have a lot of problems, this decade. You don't need a full year with the average day past the uninhabitable mark to be in trouble, you just need one day with conditions that you can't survive.
- Flankk 5y agoLytton burned to the ground the next day. Let's see how long the American egocentric approach lasts as more cities burn down with each passing summer. Keep topping up your SUV, it's not your problem.
- helloworld11 5y agoHere's a ranking of greenhouse gas production by country. Sure, the U.S. produces a lot, but several other countries produce enormous amounts too. The U.S is also is a leader in developing green technologies and heading up political campaigns for better green policies. This doesn't excuse their other polluting tactics but it gives balance against the simplistic, politically biased screed you just wrote with specific irrelevant insults about SUVs and Americans. Climate change is hard to fix, but it most definitely won't be made easier if the focus is just on blaming Americans for X and Y. https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/greenhouse-gas-emissions-by-country https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/greenhous...
- Flankk 5y agoCase in point.
- deleted 5y ago[deleted]
- MisterMower 5y agoYour comment raises an interesting question: how many places that are currently uninhabitable become habitable in 2100? I mean, the whole continent of Antarctica is covered in ice. Sure Mexico and North Africa become unbearably hot, but I imagine lots of places actually become more hospitable with global warming. Not that you’ll ever hear the doomsdayers talk about it. Go look at a world map. How much land mass is at the equator compared to 60 degrees north? Any person that’s serious about examining the effects of climate change will take all effects into account, not just the ones that conjure Mad Max movie scenes.
- adamrezich 5y agoanyone else have pretty bad We're All Gonna Die Fatigue at this point
- anamax 5y agoOne of my Grandfathers had "We're All Gonna Die Fatigue" when he was young and I'm old. "We're all going to die" may be as old as "the young are such slackers." “Whither are the manly vigour and athletic appearance of our forefathers flown? Can these be their legitimate heirs? Surely, no; a race of effeminate, self-admiring, emaciated fribbles can never have descended in a direct line from the heroes of Potiers and Agincourt...” Letter in Town and Country magazine republished in Paris Fashion: A Cultural History, 1771 “They think they know everything, and are always quite sure about it.” Rhetoric, Aristotle, 4th Century BC
- disordinary 5y agoAccording to this map I have nothing to worry about (except for global economic collapse, famine, and war)
- more_corn 5y agoAlways look on the bright side.
- swader999 5y agoWW3 seems more pressing atm.
- more_corn 5y agoAnd the good news is that nuclear winter will totally cancel out climate change. We couldn’t have planned it better if we tried.
- swader999 5y agoHopefully just air bursts. Probably being too optimistic.
- kennywinker 5y agofun fact: the way our world is structured around unsustainable resource extraction is a major contributing factor to any potential upcoming wars.
- more_corn 5y agoNeat map
- tgsovlerkhgsel 5y agoThis is highly misleading. First, if you click on "present", it shows significant populations living in "uninhabitable" areas, making their definition of "uninhabitable" quite questionable, covering e.g. 56% of the population of India and 84% of the population of the Netherlands. Last time I checked, Rotterdam and Amsterdam were pretty habitable. Second, for their 2100 display, they're assuming an increase of 2.7°C compared to pre-industrial levels, which is what their source (ClimateActionTracker) considers the outcome of currently implemented policies, ignoring any and all planned improvements/goals. That's not a realistic scenario.
- kennywinker 5y ago> ignoring any and all planned improvements/goals. That's not a realistic scenario. There are plenty of realistic scenarios where far right climate denialists come to power in major nations and actively roll back targets and progress. Counting on future action is exactly the wrong thing to do right now - and including future un-comitted-to actions in a model would be "highly misleading".
- cableshaft 5y agoNetherlands seems to be the Sea Level one, which its level is just what percent of people live below sea level (according to its label). Netherlands does lie either at or under sea level today, and they have a giant sea wall they recently spent $617 million to update and future proof it until only 2050[1]. As sea levels rise, some countries will be able to afford to do this, and others won't. To build one to protect New York City might cost $119 billion, for example[2] (and they've already spent $1.4 billion). For the people who don't keep putting money building and maintaining giant walls to keep the sea out, yes those places will become unlivable. For India it mostly shows up for the water stress index, and yeah, it seems to be having issues with water today[3]: "India placed thirteenth among the world's 17 ‘extremely water-stressed’ countries, according to the Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas released by the World Resources Institute (WRI). The country, followed by neighbouring Pakistan, was under ‘extremely high’ levels of baseline water stress." "A region is said to be under ‘water stress’ when the demand for water there exceeds the available volume or when poor quality restricts use." "The World Bank too had warned about the region’s water stress last year. Countries there were “withdrawing water from underground reservoirs faster than it could be replenished and were essentially living beyond their means,” it said." So they're getting away with it right now because they haven't totally drained all the groundwater, but they're steadily depleting that. Eventually that won't be the case (especially by 2100), and that region will most likely become unlivable. [1]: https://www.theb1m.com/video/the-sea-wall-that-saved-a-nation https://www.theb1m.com/video/the-sea-wall-that-saved-a-natio... [2]: https://www.cbsnews.com/newyork/news/new-york-119-billion-sea-wall-proposal/ https://www.cbsnews.com/newyork/news/new-york-119-billion-se... [3]: https://www.downtoearth.org.in/news/water/india-world-s-13th-most-water-stressed-country-wri-66066 https://www.downtoearth.org.in/news/water/india-world-s-13th...
- helloworld11 5y agoThis map is little better than science fiction in terms of the extreme extrapolations it reaches at to get its results. I'm sorry but there's just way that no current climate modeling could come to these conclusions with anything even remotely approaching certainty. If some of you would leave behind your climate change disaster porn fetishism for a bit (despite using plenty of the latest smartphone technologies in your comfortable middle to upper middle class lives while you lambast the world for "never changing"), you might consider these climate predictions rationally enough to realize that doom scenarios like these have been ongoing for decades, if not centuries and have literally no basis in fact. They are no more than speculation based on guesses derived from a snapshot of the present. Remember the air quality predictions of the 70's? How have those gone in many of the places where it was predicted that millions would suffocate? Just one example. For one thing, the 2.7 degree increase they mention is desperately severe and seems to assume that nothing in our human world will improve in any way in so far as contamination of the world is concerned, or present and near future technologies to mitigate it. Secondly, the entire graphic hinges on afar too many unknown unknowns and a total lack of imagination for potential positive outcomes from warmer temperatures or human innovation under steady duress. I don't deny the dangers of climate change or the effect that humans have on the world already, or if they're not careful about modulating their behavior down the road. It's also undeniable that even now, irresponsible climate actions have caused suffering for certain populations, but none of this justifies treating doom porn as a hard or realistic assessment of the future, when nothing so far has even concretely borne out older predictions of man-made climate catastrophe in even the present time.
- corney91 5y agoOf course it's not certain -- it's a model. It's based on existing plans, not current behaviour, which is the only data you can realistically draw predictions from. As governments implement further policies the model can be updated. How else do you think this should work?
- juancn 5y agoIt was kinda interesting until I checked water stress in Buenos Aires. I live here, you dig a small hole in the ground and freshwater seeps. It’s a massive sedimentary plain where lack of water is definitely not a problem, excess I may buy. The extrapolation seems just wrong.