4 ms·

Logarithmic axis warning! We see no "breakthrough", just incremental optimisation (fine in itself). The biggest drop happened between 2000 and 2005, and for th

by IMTDb 5y ago

Logarithmic axis warning! We see no "breakthrough", just incremental optimisation (fine in itself). The biggest drop happened between 2000 and 2005, and for the past 15 years the progress have slowed (even after accounting for the logarithmic axis !). The conclusion is that battery technologies are incrementally harder to optimise, that progress is slowing and we shouldn't expect anything major unless an actual breakthrough is made. In other words: if your project isn't viable with the current price point, you may hope for a small discount in few years, but don't expect anything major.

dghlsakjg 5y ago
That's a scale for the current champion, lithium-ion. All it tells us is that lithium ion is a mature technology, not that batteries in general are a mature technology. There's plenty of scenarios where a more expensive alternative could take over easily. A more energy dense alternative that cost 2x as much would be a massive win for vehicles and especially aircraft where weight is a huge penalty. Alternatively, a technology with a much lower price even with a much lower energy density could enable a lot of green energy storage projects that are currently uneconomical with current battery technology.
- rstuart4133 5y ago
  > That's a scale for the current champion, lithium-ion. They are all currently lithium-ion. What they are varying is the ion. The ion makes a big difference LiFePO4 is very different to LiMn and its mates (higher cycles and lifetime, lower energy density). A LiS is a different ion yet again. It's not a 3 fold improvement in energy density like the article says, more like twice the density in both volume and weight. And like LiFePO4, no rare earth minerals. It's downfall has been durability (50 cycles or so), but there are now multiple teams announcing 1000 cycles or better in the lab, all using different approaches. It seems inevitable that someone will figure out how to manufacture one of those chemistries at scale in time. Then you will see a step change by a change in chemistry. Without a change in chemistry all you see is improvements in manufacturing which is a gradual thing.

by IMTDb 5y ago

dghlsakjg 5y ago

That's a scale for the current champion, lithium-ion. All it tells us is that lithium ion is a mature technology, not that batteries in general are a mature technology. There's plenty of scenarios where a more expensive alternative could take over easily. A more energy dense alternative that cost 2x as much would be a massive win for vehicles and especially aircraft where weight is a huge penalty. Alternatively, a technology with a much lower price even with a much lower energy density could enable a lot of green energy storage projects that are currently uneconomical with current battery technology.

rstuart4133 5y ago
> That's a scale for the current champion, lithium-ion. They are all currently lithium-ion. What they are varying is the ion. The ion makes a big difference LiFePO4 is very different to LiMn and its mates (higher cycles and lifetime, lower energy density). A LiS is a different ion yet again. It's not a 3 fold improvement in energy density like the article says, more like twice the density in both volume and weight. And like LiFePO4, no rare earth minerals. It's downfall has been durability (50 cycles or so), but there are now multiple teams announcing 1000 cycles or better in the lab, all using different approaches. It seems inevitable that someone will figure out how to manufacture one of those chemistries at scale in time. Then you will see a step change by a change in chemistry. Without a change in chemistry all you see is improvements in manufacturing which is a gradual thing.