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The market for growth tech/speculative stocks has been irrational for almost a decade now. New metrics always being invented to justify this/that, but plenty o
by adam_arthur 5y ago
The market for growth tech/speculative stocks has been irrational for almost a decade now.
New metrics always being invented to justify this/that, but plenty of stocks were at 100x Price Sales just a few months ago... Which pretty much never will make sense for a decently sized company.
Yet somehow the FAANGs which are effective monopolies sit at 20-30 PE, while Costco is at 45.
The market is not efficient at all, and I don't know if it's just blind index investing, herd behavior in fund managers or what.
Seems to me we need a real correction to flush a lot of the idiocy out of the market. The government has supported speculators at every turn since the GFC, which is creating a weird moral hazard, most prominently now in housing.
Fortunately inflation has forced their hand, and 10y rising even to 3-4%, and mortgages to 6% will crush most of the speculation.
- lanstin 5y agoCostco pays dividends. Without dividends, stock is mostly worthless except for the speculative aspect. A Google that paid dividends would be a sound investment, if you neglect the social externalities, and would burst up thru the PE ratios.
- adam_arthur 5y agoIntrinsic value of stocks comes from dividends or the potential for future dividends. Any stock that doesn't pay a dividend could pay one in the future from their earnings/cash flow. So even stocks without dividends have a measurable intrinsic value