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After seeing the Ukraine situation, and hearing Prof. Mearsheimer's take on it (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JrMiSQAGOS4 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JrMi

After seeing the Ukraine situation, and hearing Prof. Mearsheimer's take on it (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JrMiSQAGOS4 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JrMiSQAGOS4), I've begun to look at the world through a balance of powers political lens. Many of the countries we think of as independent nations, are only pseudo-independent. Much of the Western world has ceded its defense to the United States under NATO in the wake of WW2 and then again after the collapse of Soviet Union. Ukraine is a pawn, unfortunately. A strategic middle ground wedge point from which NATO hopes to box Russia in and prevent it from redeveloping as a peer competitor. Russia wants to be a peer competitor so that it can have self-sovereignty, and dominating oil fields and the Black Sea is critical for them to achieve that. China does too, that's why it wants Taiwan, as a strategic location in the south China Sea. Iraq, Afghanistan, Yemen, Libya, etc. these were all deemed strategic geography by the neo-cons and neo-libs that run the United States. They're playing chess with other people's homelands. The goal, from their perspective, is to contain threats (Iran, North Korea, etc) and prevent other great powers and peer competitors from emerging unless they agree to cede some sovereignty. The thought is that these sort of behavior will prevent another world war. If you can spread democracy around, after all, it's extremely rare that two democracies that actively trade with each other do war with each other. But I think this grand experiment has proven to be a failure. Not all countries have the culture for democracy. And culture matters a great deal. For these countries, introducing democracy (or puppet democracy, as the CIA is wont to do) is often simply destabilizing. I honestly hate my country's meddling around the world. I think it was something we reluctantly took on in the wake of WW2, but the whole military-industrial-technocratic-espionage apparatus that has developed in our country as a result of decades of this sort of policy has undermined our own democracy at home. And we're rapidly approaching a new world in which we are far from the 40s where we had 45% of the world GDP. And we've wrecked more countries than we've helped, in my opinion. But at the same time, I am kinda anxious about a world where the U.S. leaves a vacuum for others to fill. We really won't have a choice, in the near future, though. The financial gravity of this situation will hit us sooner or later, and we'll have to scale back. We've already ceded ground to the Russians and Chinese on hypersonic, EMP, and submarine weaponry. And I feel for the people stuck in the middle. The world is reverting back to a multi-polar state of affairs. I hope we do not repeat the 1930s and 40s as a result.

fuoqi 5y ago
The US and CIA have almost zero interest in building stable prosperous and independent democracies. As long as foreign government serves their agenda it does not matter whether it's a democracy or not (Saudi Arabia, the Shah regime in Iran, Pinochet in Chile, autocratic government in South Korea during Cold War). And if a democracy does not follow the US will, well, it's worse for that democracy (see Muslim Brotherhood overthrown by military coup in Egypt and two unconstitutional power changes in Ukraine).
juanani 5y ago
XorNot 5y ago
Russia moans about NATO encirclement, but it's being encircled because literally no country around it trusts Russia not to conquer them. NATO isn't a conquering alliance it's a mutual defense pact. The history of the Soviet-era is one of Russian genocide and racism towards literally every non-Russian soviet state, and millions dead in purges and legislated famines. Russia's national identity has been that it's a victim, because it helps them ignore the fact that it's a national embarrassment that a country with that much natural resources wealth has a GDP smaller than Italy. Ukraine is being invaded to the satisfy the ego and delusions of a despot who fears democracies and can't conceive of the idea of a free election. Recent events are a real good litmus test of who is worth listening to and Mearsheimer turns out to be yet another pundit running the DC track who spins happy fantasies that everything is "under control". Quote from him prior to 2022: "If you really want to wreck Russia, what you should do is to encourage it to try to conquer Ukraine. Putin is much too smart to try that". Another useless DC circuiter in the social sciences with nothing useful to say.
dzikimarian 5y ago
You're missing one important thing - all of the countries controlled by Soviets wanted out. Life at the other side of Berlin wall was objectively better. It is true till today (see protests in Belarus after elections, and as the matter of fact - current war). This line of argument assumes, that if NATO refrained from expansion, east Europe would be a happy Russian family. That's not true. I'm living in a post Soviet country and I find argument, that we were pawn played into joining NATO repulsive. We wanted to join NATO because it was only way to stop Russia from exploiting us. It came with tradeoffs of course, but it's not directly comparable in any way, shape or form. Russian propaganda loves this narrative about "geopolitical goals", because it is making them look like equal peer being challenged by expanding west. This is not true. They are bully trying to keep control of their victims.

fuoqi 5y ago

The US and CIA have almost zero interest in building stable prosperous and independent democracies. As long as foreign government serves their agenda it does not matter whether it's a democracy or not (Saudi Arabia, the Shah regime in Iran, Pinochet in Chile, autocratic government in South Korea during Cold War). And if a democracy does not follow the US will, well, it's worse for that democracy (see Muslim Brotherhood overthrown by military coup in Egypt and two unconstitutional power changes in Ukraine).

juanani 5y ago

XorNot 5y ago

Russia moans about NATO encirclement, but it's being encircled because literally no country around it trusts Russia not to conquer them. NATO isn't a conquering alliance it's a mutual defense pact. The history of the Soviet-era is one of Russian genocide and racism towards literally every non-Russian soviet state, and millions dead in purges and legislated famines. Russia's national identity has been that it's a victim, because it helps them ignore the fact that it's a national embarrassment that a country with that much natural resources wealth has a GDP smaller than Italy. Ukraine is being invaded to the satisfy the ego and delusions of a despot who fears democracies and can't conceive of the idea of a free election. Recent events are a real good litmus test of who is worth listening to and Mearsheimer turns out to be yet another pundit running the DC track who spins happy fantasies that everything is "under control". Quote from him prior to 2022: "If you really want to wreck Russia, what you should do is to encourage it to try to conquer Ukraine. Putin is much too smart to try that". Another useless DC circuiter in the social sciences with nothing useful to say.

dzikimarian 5y ago

You're missing one important thing - all of the countries controlled by Soviets wanted out. Life at the other side of Berlin wall was objectively better. It is true till today (see protests in Belarus after elections, and as the matter of fact - current war). This line of argument assumes, that if NATO refrained from expansion, east Europe would be a happy Russian family. That's not true. I'm living in a post Soviet country and I find argument, that we were pawn played into joining NATO repulsive. We wanted to join NATO because it was only way to stop Russia from exploiting us. It came with tradeoffs of course, but it's not directly comparable in any way, shape or form. Russian propaganda loves this narrative about "geopolitical goals", because it is making them look like equal peer being challenged by expanding west. This is not true. They are bully trying to keep control of their victims.