> Within one century, biological intelligence will be a tiny minority of all sentient life. It will be very rare to be human. It will be very rare to have cells

> Within one century, biological intelligence will be a tiny minority of all sentient life. It will be very rare to be human. It will be very rare to have cells and blood and a heart. Human beings will be outnumbered a thousand to one by conscious machine intelligences. I think my problem with futurism in general, and AI futurism in particular, is that they are often huge predictions made far into the future, and consequently nobody can be held accountable for making them. None of us will be alive in 100 years to say "I admit it, you were right", or "that was another laughably incorrect prediction about AGI". I would love to see some smaller-scale, shorter term predictions about AI. What will the field look like in, say, 3 years? 10 years? It should be easier to predict the near term, but near term predictions are so much rarer than far future ones. It makes me think that maybe they're appealing because you can't suffer consequences for being wrong about them.