Wait, we'll build an AI dumber than us to build an AGI? I do agree that AGI will improve AGI, but such qualitative statements can mislead. Quantitatively, it m

Wait, we'll build an AI dumber than us to build an AGI? I do agree that AGI will improve AGI, but such qualitative statements can mislead. Quantitatively, it may be slow, like the old joke about a computer that can forecast tomorrow's weather perfectly - but it takes a month. Perhaps early AGI will be so bad, that even with enormous resources, it takes decades to improve itself... and by that time, humans have already improved it more. (Consider: most human GIs couldn't make any of the progress made so far.) This improved AGI is faster, but humans using it as an aid are much faster still. Nonetheless this is exponential progress. Eventually, it catches up and passes us... but even exponential improvement can take a long time to really get moving (and then it zooms away). BTW, curious: the linked sigmoids of IT improvement went: relays -> vacuum tubes -> transistors How did relays aid development of vacuum tubes? How did vacuum tubes help transistors develop? Including specific calculations, and also general productivity improvements in society that helped everything, including the next stage.