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1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/September_2019_events_in_the_U.S._repo_market https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/September_2019_events_in_the_U... 2. https://www.f

1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/September_2019_events_in_the_U.S._repo_market https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/September_2019_events_in_the_U... 2. https://www.forbes.com/sites/chuckjones/2020/12/31/2019s-yield-curve-inversion-means-a-recession-could-hit-in-2020/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/chuckjones/2020/12/31/2019s-yie...

ineedasername 5y ago
There appears to be technical issues that caused #1, something about timing rather than a cause that points to more serious problems. If so, the analysis in #2 is based on a data point disconnected from those of the trend. Also the trend in #2 consists if 3 data points. It might be an accurate interpretation, but curves before the '73, '80, '81 recessions didn't follow this pattern. We'd need an explanation for why that's the case, and what changed in the '90s. Without that we're just drawing a bullseye around 3 dots coincidentally close together. Was there other evidence for a recession? I know that some people were saying we were "due" for one based simply on average timing, but that's no very compelling either if GDP growth had been relatively steady. Meanwhile, this article [0] indicates that right before the pandemic got huge we weren't checking the boxes on a variety of things that would be warning signs. [0] https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/03/06/heres-a-list-of-recession-indicators-and-where-they-stand-according-to-bank-of-america.html https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/03/06/her...
- pram 5y ago
  Growth was already slowing in 2019, which is why the fed started dropping rates in June. In fact 2019 was the lowest growth in the entire decade, the lowest since 2008. https://www.bbc.com/news/business-50234626 https://www.bbc.com/news/business-50234626
  - ineedasername 5y ago
    That same article, in analyzing the trends, gave the opposite opinion though: that we were less likely to enter a recession than some had thought: "Wednesday's figures, suggesting resilient consumer spending and strong-than-expected housebuilding, is likely to ease fears that the US will enter recession."

ineedasername 5y ago

There appears to be technical issues that caused #1, something about timing rather than a cause that points to more serious problems. If so, the analysis in #2 is based on a data point disconnected from those of the trend. Also the trend in #2 consists if 3 data points. It might be an accurate interpretation, but curves before the '73, '80, '81 recessions didn't follow this pattern. We'd need an explanation for why that's the case, and what changed in the '90s. Without that we're just drawing a bullseye around 3 dots coincidentally close together. Was there other evidence for a recession? I know that some people were saying we were "due" for one based simply on average timing, but that's no very compelling either if GDP growth had been relatively steady. Meanwhile, this article [0] indicates that right before the pandemic got huge we weren't checking the boxes on a variety of things that would be warning signs. [0] https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/03/06/heres-a-list-of-recession-indicators-and-where-they-stand-according-to-bank-of-america.html https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/03/06/her...

pram 5y ago
Growth was already slowing in 2019, which is why the fed started dropping rates in June. In fact 2019 was the lowest growth in the entire decade, the lowest since 2008. https://www.bbc.com/news/business-50234626 https://www.bbc.com/news/business-50234626
- ineedasername 5y ago
  That same article, in analyzing the trends, gave the opposite opinion though: that we were less likely to enter a recession than some had thought: "Wednesday's figures, suggesting resilient consumer spending and strong-than-expected housebuilding, is likely to ease fears that the US will enter recession."