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> First, a fusor is a bench-top nuclear fusion device. The main downside is that no one has figured out how to get more useful energy out of it then we put in.
by fao_ 5y ago
> First, a fusor is a bench-top nuclear fusion device. The main downside is that no one has figured out how to get more useful energy out of it then we put in. So probably not what you had in mind.
> Of course, it's also a completely ridiculous design that approximately no-one would want to use in practice. Especially when you already have more conventional nuclear fission reactors.
Right, and that's the point.
There are three logical leaps here, and proof is missing for all three.
- One, that AGI is something we can replicate in a Turing Machine.
AGI might require a specific effect in quantum mechanics to work, for example. Light refraction is completely understood, but still extremely difficult to solve for a single case -- computing power is getting there, but it took about 60 years from it being understood to us being able to compute it reasonably, and even then it's only an approximation -- our best rendering farms about around 5 F-stops. That's nowhere near the human eye's ability.
Another example, the 3-Body problem solved for N-bodies. Or how about, protein folding. Folding@Home is remarkable, but even with the combined GPUs of hundreds of volunteers, it still takes Folding@Home months, years, to calculate the folds of a single protein. The brain has billions of them.
- Two, that we will figure out the solution to Turning Machine simulation in our lifetime.
This can stand on the arguments of one. I'd just like to add that there are many really simple conjectures that are as-yet unsolved within mathematics. The Collatz conjecture is a good example here, but there are hundreds of thousands of others. Despite it being probably the simplest problem to teach, it's been about 90 years and even proof theory machines haven't made too much headway. Erdos, probably the greatest mathematician to ever have lived, stated "Mathematics may not be ready for such a problem". In that, subject experts doubt our ability to solve it within our lifetime.
Why should this be any different for an exponentially harder problem?
Perhaps a reference to the fact that it took about 150 years to go between "neurons are in the brain and influence our actions" to "we can do brain surgery, kind of...". And probably about 200 more years until we can say we actually "understand" the brain in a meaningful way?
- Three. That the resulting device will be practical, useful, and will be able to understand itself enough to replicate a better version of itself, within a reasonable timeframe.
I think you argued this sufficiently yourself! The fact that we can build something doesn't give it use. We can build machines that extract energy off of graphene. At no point does it make it useful to do so, however.
And yet, despite all of these unsolved problems, we are supposed to be able to simulate a machine to replicate the brain? In the next 20 years, no less?! Is it not unreasonable to think that this is a preposterous assertion whatever dimension you look at it through? That so many people have thrown themselves into wishful thinking, and cults at that, is beyond me.
- eru 5y agoI'll try a reply, but you might get more out of reading some of Gwern's essays. Especially https://www.gwern.net/Complexity-vs-AI https://www.gwern.net/Complexity-vs-AI and https://www.gwern.net/Scaling-hypothesis https://www.gwern.net/Scaling-hypothesis First, what makes you think that solving the Collatz conjecture is easier than AGI? Doesn't that beg the question? Just because a challenge is easy to state doesn't mean that we should expect it to be easy to answer. Fermat's Last Theorem was easy to state; open a random math textbook for many theorems that are harder to state, but easier to prove. Second, quantum mechanics is totally amenable to simulation on a Turing machine. In fact, all of known physics is. You rightly point out that the question is rather how good modern hardware and software is at the task. (Btw, quantum computers would be really good at simulating quantum mechanical systems. And that would probably be their main use; right now we don't really know much else they are better at than classical computers.) Third, you bring up the point that figuring out how arbitrary proteins fold is still rather difficult. I agree. So an atom for atom simulation of the human brain would presumably be also rather difficult. That doesn't mean that AGI is impossible. It only means that AGI via atom-for-atom simulation of a human brain would be rather difficult. Simulating a human brain atom-for-atom is only one approach you can try to take to reach AGI. There are other approaches people are working on. Only one of them has to work.
- fao_ 5y agoSure, but all this misses my point that these are comparisons. This is what has happened with other technology in a similar ballpark of "we know how to do this, we can (technically) do this". You're arbitrarily selecting for a specific outcome in the space of all possible outcomes. When not only do we not know enough about any outcome to favour it, but we have knowledge of how other technology being developed in a similar space, with similar constraints, turned out -- i.e. it didn't turn out at all how we expected in any specific way". So let's be honest here, in the space of all possible outcomes -- the negative outcomes where "it doesn't work" or "it works but is too slow to use" or "it doesn't understand how it works either", is a larger order of infinity than the outcomes where it does work, at least based on what has happened with pretty much every other technology that we have records of predictions for (Is there a technology that we have predicted where it wasn't wildly different or handicapped compared to our dreams? I'd honestly like to know TBH). There is literally no reason for pontificating more over this. All of this, the best guesses, the worst guesses, is all just a variety of wishful thinking. The only true answer is we have no fucking idea.