3 ms·
In 2019, 32 AI experts participated in a survey on AGI timing: 45% of respondents predict a date before 2060 34% of all participants predicted a date
by lalaithion 5y ago
In 2019, 32 AI experts participated in a survey on AGI timing:
45% of respondents predict a date before 2060
34% of all participants predicted a date after 2060
21% of participants predicted that singularity will never occur.
https://research.aimultiple.com/artificial-general-intelligence-singularity-timing/ https://research.aimultiple.com/artificial-general-intellige...
- throwawaygh 5y agoWhy 2060? I'd LOVE to see the ages of the respondents in each group. (I have a phd in CS and am, by most reasonable definitions, an "AI Expert". Whatever the hell that means. I've been a respondent in very similar surveys run by PIs at fancy universities and so on. These responses are always wild ass guesses and should be totally ignored. I've even left a comment to this effect on one such survey.)
- 7373737373 5y agoThe prediction contest here has a peak at around 2042: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/ https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first...