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> Most of the imminent AGI / Singularity / Robot Apocalypse stuff seems to come, with few exceptions, not from practitioners or computer scientists specialized
by 0xBABAD00C 5y ago
> Most of the imminent AGI / Singularity / Robot Apocalypse stuff seems to come, with few exceptions, not from practitioners or computer scientists specialized in AI
I'm a practitioner at a top company for many years now, and I think we're getting close to a point of no return. I think best case scenario is some form of unrecognizably transformed "humanity", worst case is too horrible to even spell it out.
The reason why this is not the consensus among experts has to do with a combination of blind spots and biases. Humans are especially bad at (a) evaluating / reflecting on themselves, and (b) extrapolating, especially with non-linear processes.
- mensetmanusman 5y agoThat’s what experts in fusion have been saying for 50 years though… now that Moore’s law has ended, it might be a long while…
- breuleux 5y agoI have seldom seen predictions about technology come to fruition at the predicted date. If they come at all (they usually don't), it's usually much later. Sure, some naysayers might have said "we will never solve chess/go/etc." but I think they were overall fewer than the people who thought it was right around the corner (and it was more of a philosophical argument than a scientific one). Totally unpredicted advances coming out of the blue, yeah, that happens often. But as far as AGI goes, it's been predicted pretty much every year since the 70s. Being too conservative about extrapolation doesn't seem to be our problem. If anything, I think we're overeager.