4 ms·
> But the above comment's entire point is there's zero reason for us to assume we're on an unbounded exponential vs a sigmoid. Something about that which is di
by unoti 5y ago
> But the above comment's entire point is there's zero reason for us to assume we're on an unbounded exponential vs a sigmoid.
Something about that which is discussed at length in "The Singularity is Near" is the idea that the unbounded exponential is actually comprised of many smaller sigmoids. Technological progress looks like sigmoids locally-- for example you have the industrial revolution, the cotton gin, steam power, etc. all looking like a sigmoids of the exploitation of automation. At some point you get all those benefits and progress starts to level off like a sigmoids. Then another sigmoid comes along when you get electricity, and a new sigmoid starts. Then later we get computers, and that starts to level off, then networking comes along and we get a new sigmoid. Then deep learning... The AI winters were the levelling off of sigmoids by one way of thinking. And maybe we're tapering off on our current round of what we can do with existing architectures.
- ImaCake 5y agoI’m no expert, just a humble biostatistics student, generally when you sum together a lot of random variables following a specific distribution you end up with basically the same distribution (scaled by the N random vars). So a lot of sigmoids put together (e.g. covid spread) will still eventually be a sigmoid. Biology seems to run on sigmoids that at first look like exponentials.
- hyperpallium2 5y agoThese ones aren't random, because they build on previous ones. In nature, you get a sigmoid because you run out of resource, I think? True at any scale. Pragmatic people point will out one limit on GI is all the accessible matter in the universe. But, theoretically, I think, there is no limit on complexity. BTW you might like this paper on the exponential growth in complexity of life on earth, over long timescales. https://www.technologyreview.com/2013/04/15/113741/moores-law-and-the-origin-of-life/ https://www.technologyreview.com/2013/04/15/113741/moores-la...
- bloak 5y ago> generally when you sum together a lot of random variables following a specific distribution you end up with basically the same distribution (scaled by the N random vars). So a lot of sigmoids put together (e.g. covid spread) will still eventually be a sigmoid. I haven't studied statistics very much, but I'm fairly sure the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_limit_theorem https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_limit_theorem says something a bit different from that!
- ImaCake 5y agoWoops yes. If you sum them together you do get a normal dist. Come to think of it a cumulative normal distribution is a sigmoid.
- jasonwatkinspdx 5y agoThat's the same argument. There's nothing that assures us automation itself is an unbounded exponential.