Why is the "fair price" not significantly higher than it was 2 months ago, for short-dated futures? Supply is temporarily disrupted, all input costs are signifi

Why is the "fair price" not significantly higher than it was 2 months ago, for short-dated futures? Supply is temporarily disrupted, all input costs are significantly higher, and it's a very inelastic market because elasticity comes from mass starvation. You can say the move was an overreaction - but it's pricing in many unknowns, the probability of which are certainly not zero. What if Russia banned all grain exports, for example?