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That's a far cry from "We know that the single best predictor of job success and performance is IQ." I think when people say things like that, what they mean i

That's a far cry from "We know that the single best predictor of job success and performance is IQ." I think when people say things like that, what they mean is "what simple number is the best predictor of success", which begs the question that a simple number can be a good predictor at all. Keep in mind that something can be the best merely because every other option is even worse: in practice, the best predictor is a really terrible predictor. So bad, in fact, that a five-minute conversation with somebody will tell you more about their ability to succeed at a job than knowing their IQ.

oriolid 5y ago
> that a five-minute conversation with somebody will tell you more about their ability to succeed at a job than knowing their IQ. Got any citations to support this?
Jensson 5y ago
> So bad, in fact, that a five-minute conversation with somebody will tell you more about their ability to succeed at a job than knowing their IQ. But when you try to put a number on that five minute conversation it turns out that the number is worse than the number provided by IQ tests. Otherwise the simple number from conversations would be well known to be a stronger predictor, but nobody has found such a result.