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> and farmers in other countries (India, USA) already are planting more to make up for it Are they? Fertilizer prices are up 3x-5x, depending on where you look

> and farmers in other countries (India, USA) already are planting more to make up for it Are they? Fertilizer prices are up 3x-5x, depending on where you look, due to Russian export restrictions, so for many farmers it's cheaper to wait it out and give the soil a rest. Planting reports have only started trickling in, so we don't have a good global view of what has been planted in spring 2022.

jtbayly 5y ago
Most wheat was planted 4 months ago, according to the author.
- keneda7 5y ago
  Contrary to what the US media and current US administration are saying, we had major issues before Russia invaded Ukraine. This idea that the Russia invasion is responsible for all these problems is ludicrous. Yes, it has made them worse but it is not the root cause. The fertilizer shortage was happening at the end of last year. You know the 4 months ago you quoted. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/nov/25/fertilizer-shortage-north-america-farmers-food-prices https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/nov/25/fertiliz...
  - jtbayly 5y ago
    Some farmers were delaying buying fertilizer, according to that article. Nothing in that article indicates that they were not planting because of a "shortage." Prices were simply higher and some people were betting on them going up and some were betting on them going down. I'm in agreement with the idea that this isn't primarily caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Read the author's other thread on fertilizer for more context on that. She says it's primarily a shipping problem, not a production of fertilizer problem. Which tracks with the idea that this is simply another example of the global supply chain snarling things up.
randomdata 5y ago
> so for many farmers it's cheaper to wait it out and give the soil a rest. If you play your cards right, and Mother Nature plays nice, this could be the most profitable year of farming seen in a long time. Costs are up, yes, but the income potential is up even more. Why would anyone choose this year, of all years, to "give the soil a rest"?
- pletnes 5y ago
  Because you need the cash up front to buy the ingredients - seed, fertiliser, diesel - all more expensive than last year. (Not saying you’re wrong though.)
  - randomdata 5y ago
    The land is going to be your largest expense in the typical case. If you truly can't come up with the money for inputs, how are you going to carry the land? You can often push your land costs until after harvest, but if you don't have the harvest to pay for it... And if you know you won't be able to put a crop in due to budgetary constraints, why wouldn't you rent it out to another farmer? There are lineups of hungry farmers ready to spend whatever it takes to find new ground to work. I find it hard to believe that land is going to lay fallow this year specifically because of what's going on. Certainly people are adjusting what they plan to grow to optimize for the situation. That is definitely happening.
  - bluGill 5y ago
    That is the easy part, any farmer these days is already selling their crop before it is planted. They let investors and insurance take the major risk, between the two they are guaranteed to break even, and if there is anything left over because of a good year (there normally is) that is profit. if investors are not willing to buy their expected crop at the price needed to break even the farmer doesn't plant at all.
- pixl97 5y ago
  With the high temps at the poles this year already. I have my doubts that Mother Nature is going to play nice.
whatevertrevor 5y ago
Wheat is a winter crop in India FYI, a lot of the mass grain production switches to rice in the spring/summer season.
mcguire 5y ago
By the same Dr Sarah Taber: https://twitter.com/SarahTaber_bww/status/1507808884534169615 https://twitter.com/SarahTaber_bww/status/150780888453416961...

jtbayly 5y ago

Most wheat was planted 4 months ago, according to the author.

keneda7 5y ago
Contrary to what the US media and current US administration are saying, we had major issues before Russia invaded Ukraine. This idea that the Russia invasion is responsible for all these problems is ludicrous. Yes, it has made them worse but it is not the root cause. The fertilizer shortage was happening at the end of last year. You know the 4 months ago you quoted. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/nov/25/fertilizer-shortage-north-america-farmers-food-prices https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/nov/25/fertiliz...
- jtbayly 5y ago
  Some farmers were delaying buying fertilizer, according to that article. Nothing in that article indicates that they were not planting because of a "shortage." Prices were simply higher and some people were betting on them going up and some were betting on them going down. I'm in agreement with the idea that this isn't primarily caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Read the author's other thread on fertilizer for more context on that. She says it's primarily a shipping problem, not a production of fertilizer problem. Which tracks with the idea that this is simply another example of the global supply chain snarling things up.

randomdata 5y ago

> so for many farmers it's cheaper to wait it out and give the soil a rest. If you play your cards right, and Mother Nature plays nice, this could be the most profitable year of farming seen in a long time. Costs are up, yes, but the income potential is up even more. Why would anyone choose this year, of all years, to "give the soil a rest"?

pletnes 5y ago
Because you need the cash up front to buy the ingredients - seed, fertiliser, diesel - all more expensive than last year. (Not saying you’re wrong though.)
- randomdata 5y ago
  The land is going to be your largest expense in the typical case. If you truly can't come up with the money for inputs, how are you going to carry the land? You can often push your land costs until after harvest, but if you don't have the harvest to pay for it... And if you know you won't be able to put a crop in due to budgetary constraints, why wouldn't you rent it out to another farmer? There are lineups of hungry farmers ready to spend whatever it takes to find new ground to work. I find it hard to believe that land is going to lay fallow this year specifically because of what's going on. Certainly people are adjusting what they plan to grow to optimize for the situation. That is definitely happening.
- bluGill 5y ago
  That is the easy part, any farmer these days is already selling their crop before it is planted. They let investors and insurance take the major risk, between the two they are guaranteed to break even, and if there is anything left over because of a good year (there normally is) that is profit. if investors are not willing to buy their expected crop at the price needed to break even the farmer doesn't plant at all.
pixl97 5y ago
With the high temps at the poles this year already. I have my doubts that Mother Nature is going to play nice.

whatevertrevor 5y ago

Wheat is a winter crop in India FYI, a lot of the mass grain production switches to rice in the spring/summer season.

mcguire 5y ago

By the same Dr Sarah Taber: https://twitter.com/SarahTaber_bww/status/1507808884534169615 https://twitter.com/SarahTaber_bww/status/150780888453416961...