3 ms·

I don't understand why she mentions "most of the world plants wheat in the fall" if, as far as I understand, Ukraine plants their wheat in the spring. Since 1)

I don't understand why she mentions "most of the world plants wheat in the fall" if, as far as I understand, Ukraine plants their wheat in the spring. Since 1) we're in the middle of their planting season 2) Ukraine produced 40 million tons of wheat last year 3) Given the current situation it's very hard to predict how much wheat will be successfully produced this year - It looks like the majority of farmers won't be able to grow their crops - how is she so sure about the 7 million ton shortfall figure? It seems reasonable it will be closer to 20-30 million ton shortfall for this year/next year unless I'm missing something.

mentalpiracy 5y ago
If you read two tweets down the thread, she explains that Ukraine is a winter wheat producer. Winter wheat is planted in the fall, and harvested in spring-summer. It has already been planted.
- anonAndOn 5y ago
  > Ukraine plants their wheat in the spring This aligns with every single combat photo I've seen thus far. I don't think I've seen one field of winter wheat. So the shortfall is not in winter wheat, but in the types planted right now.
  - randomdata 5y ago
    > This aligns with every single combat photo I've seen thus far. I don't think I've seen one field of winter wheat. 1. How many photos from the war have you seen of farmland? It's not exactly the prime battleground. 2. We can assume that you can recognize winter wheat at this stage from photos not focused on the crop? It, of course, looks like someone's dead lawn when it first emerges from it's winter rest. Hard to differentiate from any other grassy area unless the photo has a lot of detail. On that note, I started looking at some random pictures after I read your comment. I came across this one[1] of a field. Wheat or no in your opinion? In my opinion as a winter wheat grower: I have no idea. Maybe. [1] https://asianatimes.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/XFXJX6VK3JMVZM5L4467SIYLNY.jpg https://asianatimes.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/XFXJX6VK3...
    - anonAndOn 5y ago
      1. Hundreds. Twitter and Telegram are your best bet for field kills. 2. Does it? I've never seen a lawn planted in 7-8" rows. Regardless of the species of plant in the photo, does that look like a tilled field to you?
      - randomdata 5y ago
        > Does it? I've never seen a lawn planted in 7-8" rows. I've never seen 7.5" rows be row-able at that stage unless you line yourself up just perfectly. Given that the photographers aren't focused on the crop itself, what are the chances? With sufficient resolution of the photo maybe you can still tell, but someone's random cell phone photo isn't going to give you that. Even a top of the line camera scaled down to web resolutions is going to lose that information. > Regardless of the species of plant in the photo, does that look like a tilled field to you? No, but why would you till it? Wheat is the easiest crop to no-till out there. Even the moldboard mafia no-till their wheat. You'd have to be dealing with some heavy compaction or other issues with the land to justify that fuel burn just to grow poverty grass.
    - log1_aa 5y ago
      The photo shows pasture land, not winter wheat. The wheat crop in Ukraine is almost 100% winter wheat that is planted in the fall. Source: https://www.fas.usda.gov/sites/default/files/2022-03/Ukraine-Ag-Production-Trade.pdf https://www.fas.usda.gov/sites/default/files/2022-03/Ukraine...
      - randomdata 5y ago
        While I tend to agree, especially since the photo appears to be of military training and not actual combat, here[1] is a photo of known winter wheat. This photo was taken a little bit later in the year, so the leaf is more pronounced and greener than you'd expect of the current crop, but even then is the casual observer looking for pictures of war going to notice? They really don't look all that different to me without stopping to really study the details and the first photo doesn't have much detail to work with. I would bet that this[2] is a field of wheat seeded into soybean stubble, but how can you really tell for sure? [1] https://imgur.com/a/MII3Sc1 https://imgur.com/a/MII3Sc1 [2] https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FPMuO-OXwAsWAuU?format=jpg https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FPMuO-OXwAsWAuU?format=jpg
- onenukecourse 5y ago
  Why wouldn't Ukraine also plant a fall harvest crop? I thought Northern countries try to plant two crops per year. Countries like Argentina try to plant three.

mentalpiracy 5y ago

If you read two tweets down the thread, she explains that Ukraine is a winter wheat producer. Winter wheat is planted in the fall, and harvested in spring-summer. It has already been planted.

anonAndOn 5y ago
> Ukraine plants their wheat in the spring This aligns with every single combat photo I've seen thus far. I don't think I've seen one field of winter wheat. So the shortfall is not in winter wheat, but in the types planted right now.
- randomdata 5y ago
  > This aligns with every single combat photo I've seen thus far. I don't think I've seen one field of winter wheat. 1. How many photos from the war have you seen of farmland? It's not exactly the prime battleground. 2. We can assume that you can recognize winter wheat at this stage from photos not focused on the crop? It, of course, looks like someone's dead lawn when it first emerges from it's winter rest. Hard to differentiate from any other grassy area unless the photo has a lot of detail. On that note, I started looking at some random pictures after I read your comment. I came across this one[1] of a field. Wheat or no in your opinion? In my opinion as a winter wheat grower: I have no idea. Maybe. [1] https://asianatimes.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/XFXJX6VK3JMVZM5L4467SIYLNY.jpg https://asianatimes.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/XFXJX6VK3...
  - anonAndOn 5y ago
    1. Hundreds. Twitter and Telegram are your best bet for field kills. 2. Does it? I've never seen a lawn planted in 7-8" rows. Regardless of the species of plant in the photo, does that look like a tilled field to you?
    - randomdata 5y ago
      > Does it? I've never seen a lawn planted in 7-8" rows. I've never seen 7.5" rows be row-able at that stage unless you line yourself up just perfectly. Given that the photographers aren't focused on the crop itself, what are the chances? With sufficient resolution of the photo maybe you can still tell, but someone's random cell phone photo isn't going to give you that. Even a top of the line camera scaled down to web resolutions is going to lose that information. > Regardless of the species of plant in the photo, does that look like a tilled field to you? No, but why would you till it? Wheat is the easiest crop to no-till out there. Even the moldboard mafia no-till their wheat. You'd have to be dealing with some heavy compaction or other issues with the land to justify that fuel burn just to grow poverty grass.
  - log1_aa 5y ago
    The photo shows pasture land, not winter wheat. The wheat crop in Ukraine is almost 100% winter wheat that is planted in the fall. Source: https://www.fas.usda.gov/sites/default/files/2022-03/Ukraine-Ag-Production-Trade.pdf https://www.fas.usda.gov/sites/default/files/2022-03/Ukraine...
    - randomdata 5y ago
      While I tend to agree, especially since the photo appears to be of military training and not actual combat, here[1] is a photo of known winter wheat. This photo was taken a little bit later in the year, so the leaf is more pronounced and greener than you'd expect of the current crop, but even then is the casual observer looking for pictures of war going to notice? They really don't look all that different to me without stopping to really study the details and the first photo doesn't have much detail to work with. I would bet that this[2] is a field of wheat seeded into soybean stubble, but how can you really tell for sure? [1] https://imgur.com/a/MII3Sc1 https://imgur.com/a/MII3Sc1 [2] https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FPMuO-OXwAsWAuU?format=jpg https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FPMuO-OXwAsWAuU?format=jpg
onenukecourse 5y ago
Why wouldn't Ukraine also plant a fall harvest crop? I thought Northern countries try to plant two crops per year. Countries like Argentina try to plant three.