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So spring wheat is harvested in the fall, and won't be planted for a little bit in the US, because it's just now starting to get to spring in many states. Winte

So spring wheat is harvested in the fall, and won't be planted for a little bit in the US, because it's just now starting to get to spring in many states. Winter wheat, which would be harvested this spring, should've been planted months ago. So there's a gap in production, regardless of where they get their wheat from, I guess is what I'm trying to get at.

mooreds 5y ago
From the twitter thread: > And the world's farmers already started planting more wheat 4 months ago, when wheat futures rose due to possibility of Black Sea conflict. > India went all-out planting more wheat, looks set to continue a 3yr streak of rapidly increasing wheat exports. The US planted four MILLION more tons more wheat seed last fall than usual. Aus, Canada, Argentina, South Africa, even Brazil getting in on it. The author's credentials: "I'm Sarah Taber, a crop scientist with 23 years in agriculture. I started out in field work at 14, put myself through crop school, and got a front-seat view of the dirty underbelly of the farm trade." https://www.patreon.com/user?u=5610560 https://www.patreon.com/user?u=5610560
- Kon-Peki 5y ago
  Here are the last 6 years of winter wheat crop reports in the USA [1]. I don't believe that the slight increase in winter 2021/spring 2022 planting in the USA is anything other than a normal variation. I make no claim to know anything about the rest of the world, but I am skeptical that expectations of a Black Sea conflict has anything to do with planting 4 months ago. PS, you can get even more data, further back in history, directly from the USDA [2], but it is a little difficult to navigate this site. This link [3] might work for everyone, it is a query for acres of wheat planted all the way back to 1919. [1] https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/z890rt24s https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/z890rt... [2] https://www.nass.usda.gov https://www.nass.usda.gov [3] https://quickstats.nass.usda.gov/results/64834CCE-2C3A-39A1-838C-88B437DF6C96?pivot=short_desc https://quickstats.nass.usda.gov/results/64834CCE-2C3A-39A1-...
nkurz 5y ago
> Winter wheat, which would be harvested this spring Since this is a site that cares about accuracy, I'll mention that while winter wheat is planted in the winter, it's harvested in the summer or fall. It doesn't grow fast enough to be harvested in the spring. Instead, it's a way of getting a boost on the season by getting the roots established early. I don't think there is anywhere it can be harvested early enough that one can plant two crops per year in the same field. More details and dates for the US: https://www.machinefinder.com/ww/en-US/faq/when-is-winter-wheat-harvested https://www.machinefinder.com/ww/en-US/faq/when-is-winter-wh... (If you want to claim that you are technically correct, I'll concede that it is true that hypothetical Florida or Alabama winter wheat might be harvested in May. I hadn't even known that they grow winter wheat there!)
- randomdata 5y ago
  > I'll mention that while winter wheat is planted in the winter, it's harvested in the summer or fall. Who is harvesting winter wheat in the fall? Even here in snowy Canada it's a late harvest if the winter wheat comes off in August. Mid-July is typical. Spring wheat is a different story.
  - nkurz 5y ago
    Hmm. The page I linked shows Idaho, Minnesota, Montana, Oregon, Washington, and Wyoming with a harvest season extending into September. But other than Idaho (Sept 14) not by much. So technically I might be right, but only in the same way that "Spring" is also correct for the deep South. I had assumed that most of Canada would be later than the Northern tier of the US, but apparently I'm wrong. I wonder if it's because the summer days get longer the farther north you go, and at some point you actually get earlier ripening? Or maybe it's all local weather. In any case, thanks for the correction.
    - randomdata 5y ago
      > I had assumed that most of Canada would be later than the Northern tier of the US It is, but you don't find much winter wheat outside of Southern Ontario, which is actually pretty far south in the grand scheme of things. The most southern end of the province is on the same plane as California. The Canadian prairies, where most of the wheat is grown, are all about the spring wheat. That's typically a September harvest. > Idaho, Minnesota, Montana, Oregon, Washington, and Wyoming Only one of those states is not contiguous with Canada. Given much of the same environment, they share a lot of the same farming practices as western Canada. In other words, your dates no doubt include spring wheat, despite what the opening section of the document says. This explains the wide variances (July - September) in some cases, with winter wheat being the early crop and spring wheat being later.

mooreds 5y ago

From the twitter thread: > And the world's farmers already started planting more wheat 4 months ago, when wheat futures rose due to possibility of Black Sea conflict. > India went all-out planting more wheat, looks set to continue a 3yr streak of rapidly increasing wheat exports. The US planted four MILLION more tons more wheat seed last fall than usual. Aus, Canada, Argentina, South Africa, even Brazil getting in on it. The author's credentials: "I'm Sarah Taber, a crop scientist with 23 years in agriculture. I started out in field work at 14, put myself through crop school, and got a front-seat view of the dirty underbelly of the farm trade." https://www.patreon.com/user?u=5610560 https://www.patreon.com/user?u=5610560

Kon-Peki 5y ago
Here are the last 6 years of winter wheat crop reports in the USA [1]. I don't believe that the slight increase in winter 2021/spring 2022 planting in the USA is anything other than a normal variation. I make no claim to know anything about the rest of the world, but I am skeptical that expectations of a Black Sea conflict has anything to do with planting 4 months ago. PS, you can get even more data, further back in history, directly from the USDA [2], but it is a little difficult to navigate this site. This link [3] might work for everyone, it is a query for acres of wheat planted all the way back to 1919. [1] https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/z890rt24s https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/z890rt... [2] https://www.nass.usda.gov https://www.nass.usda.gov [3] https://quickstats.nass.usda.gov/results/64834CCE-2C3A-39A1-838C-88B437DF6C96?pivot=short_desc https://quickstats.nass.usda.gov/results/64834CCE-2C3A-39A1-...

nkurz 5y ago

> Winter wheat, which would be harvested this spring Since this is a site that cares about accuracy, I'll mention that while winter wheat is planted in the winter, it's harvested in the summer or fall. It doesn't grow fast enough to be harvested in the spring. Instead, it's a way of getting a boost on the season by getting the roots established early. I don't think there is anywhere it can be harvested early enough that one can plant two crops per year in the same field. More details and dates for the US: https://www.machinefinder.com/ww/en-US/faq/when-is-winter-wheat-harvested https://www.machinefinder.com/ww/en-US/faq/when-is-winter-wh... (If you want to claim that you are technically correct, I'll concede that it is true that hypothetical Florida or Alabama winter wheat might be harvested in May. I hadn't even known that they grow winter wheat there!)

randomdata 5y ago
> I'll mention that while winter wheat is planted in the winter, it's harvested in the summer or fall. Who is harvesting winter wheat in the fall? Even here in snowy Canada it's a late harvest if the winter wheat comes off in August. Mid-July is typical. Spring wheat is a different story.
- nkurz 5y ago
  Hmm. The page I linked shows Idaho, Minnesota, Montana, Oregon, Washington, and Wyoming with a harvest season extending into September. But other than Idaho (Sept 14) not by much. So technically I might be right, but only in the same way that "Spring" is also correct for the deep South. I had assumed that most of Canada would be later than the Northern tier of the US, but apparently I'm wrong. I wonder if it's because the summer days get longer the farther north you go, and at some point you actually get earlier ripening? Or maybe it's all local weather. In any case, thanks for the correction.
  - randomdata 5y ago
    > I had assumed that most of Canada would be later than the Northern tier of the US It is, but you don't find much winter wheat outside of Southern Ontario, which is actually pretty far south in the grand scheme of things. The most southern end of the province is on the same plane as California. The Canadian prairies, where most of the wheat is grown, are all about the spring wheat. That's typically a September harvest. > Idaho, Minnesota, Montana, Oregon, Washington, and Wyoming Only one of those states is not contiguous with Canada. Given much of the same environment, they share a lot of the same farming practices as western Canada. In other words, your dates no doubt include spring wheat, despite what the opening section of the document says. This explains the wide variances (July - September) in some cases, with winter wheat being the early crop and spring wheat being later.