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There are alternate sources of propellant in the solar system. Lifting it out of Earths gravity well is relatively expensive. But once you have enough of it, yo

There are alternate sources of propellant in the solar system. Lifting it out of Earths gravity well is relatively expensive. But once you have enough of it, you could start transporting propellant from elsewhere in the solar system and start stockpiling it in strategic orbits around various objects in the solar system. Once you can do that, you'd minimize the launch weight from earth to be able to get to a LEO fueling point and use the weight savings for more interesting cargo. One industry that could emerge quickly is that of asteroid mining. There are plenty of interesting asteroids with precious metals, water, and other resources. Right now the cost of getting to these asteroids, mining them, and transporting the mined goods back is so expensive in delta-v that it has not been done yet despite several companies having been active planning for this for quite some time. So, SpaceX getting their star ship going might be a big deal.That enables us getting stuff into space and that enables us bootstrapping mining and construction activity in orbit. Plenty of science fiction books have been written on this. There's no shortage of ideas here.

BurningFrog 5y ago
My big fear with asteroid mining is that if you can move an asteroid to Earth orbit, you can also smash it into any capital city or military base on Earth. Which means that this capability is a weapon more powerful than even nuclear missiles! I don't think the world will let this be run on the honor system. So I expect space travel to become extremely tightly controlled once we get close to this tech level.
- 0xffff2 5y ago
  A relatively small number of nuclear missiles is enough to wipe out human civilization. There's no such thing as "a weapon more powerful than even nuclear missiles" in terms of Earth-focused weaponry. And we've done very little if anything to prevent countries from acquiring and maintaining nuclear missiles. If we let North Korea have nukes, what makes you think we would try to stop countries from developing space capabilities?
  - gary_0 5y ago
    Also, if you have rocketry that's efficient and high-tech enough to push distant space rocks into deadly orbits, building a good ICBM arsenal is almost the same thing. Although dropping rocks at 50km/sec does save you having to build nuclear warheads, and you'd worry less about them getting shot down by missile defense. But global-scale strategic deterrents do get kind of academic past a certain point. There are plenty of ways for a nation-state actor to end the world if they really want to.
    - BurningFrog 5y ago
      In 2022 that's a decent argument. I'm thinking a few decades in the future, when there is probably settlements on the Moon and Mars, and an asteroid mining industry that finds valuable metal asteroids and sends them to Earth orbit, maybe by attaching solar powered rockets to them. In that world, any asteroid mining operation can destroy a lot on Earth, even by accident.

BurningFrog 5y ago

My big fear with asteroid mining is that if you can move an asteroid to Earth orbit, you can also smash it into any capital city or military base on Earth. Which means that this capability is a weapon more powerful than even nuclear missiles! I don't think the world will let this be run on the honor system. So I expect space travel to become extremely tightly controlled once we get close to this tech level.

0xffff2 5y ago
A relatively small number of nuclear missiles is enough to wipe out human civilization. There's no such thing as "a weapon more powerful than even nuclear missiles" in terms of Earth-focused weaponry. And we've done very little if anything to prevent countries from acquiring and maintaining nuclear missiles. If we let North Korea have nukes, what makes you think we would try to stop countries from developing space capabilities?
- gary_0 5y ago
  Also, if you have rocketry that's efficient and high-tech enough to push distant space rocks into deadly orbits, building a good ICBM arsenal is almost the same thing. Although dropping rocks at 50km/sec does save you having to build nuclear warheads, and you'd worry less about them getting shot down by missile defense. But global-scale strategic deterrents do get kind of academic past a certain point. There are plenty of ways for a nation-state actor to end the world if they really want to.
  - BurningFrog 5y ago
    In 2022 that's a decent argument. I'm thinking a few decades in the future, when there is probably settlements on the Moon and Mars, and an asteroid mining industry that finds valuable metal asteroids and sends them to Earth orbit, maybe by attaching solar powered rockets to them. In that world, any asteroid mining operation can destroy a lot on Earth, even by accident.