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This is one reason I'm quite bullish about some of the 'old space' companies, like Boeing, Northrop and Lokheed. They may be losing out in launch systems, but t

by simonh 5y ago

This is one reason I'm quite bullish about some of the 'old space' companies, like Boeing, Northrop and Lokheed. They may be losing out in launch systems, but they stand to make a fortune building a lot of the cargo Starship is going to launch. Someone's going to need to build all these satellites, probes, space stations, etc. The same applies to ESA, do they actually care about building rockets, or is the interesting work to be done now all up there in orbit and beyond? Starship isn't the end of innovation in space technology and infrastructure. It's not game over, it's the beginning.

actionfromafar 5y ago
Yeah, maybe. But those in the old guard are used to building expensive, one-off things. I'll agree they can have better margins on what they already do. SpaceX benefit most from stuff which can be mass-produced. Customers who have use-cases which can be massproduced, will benefit the most from SpaceX. Another commenter mentioned on the perils of that too - SpaceX owns the ride, so they hold the keys to the Kingdom.
- simonh 5y ago
  I think they have the opportunity, whether they take it or not is up to them. I don't worry about SpaceX dominating all aspects of space development, because their launch capacity will far, far exceed the volume of products they can reasonably develop to fill it. We're talking about the ability to deliver thousands of tons of payload to orbit per month. It's going to take many companies, many product ideas, many business models and industrial sectors to fill that capacity. It's a bit like how in the early days of the iPhone Steve Jobs imagined that Apple would develop all the apps for the phone, sometimes along with business partners, as they did with the early versions of Google Maps. His colleagues realised that the platform had the capacity to run a vast ecosystem of apps across many use cases and business models they couldn't even think of yet. The only way to realise it's potential was to carry other people's stuff, in that case apps, in SpaceX case cargo.
tempnow987 5y ago
Yeah, I'm also curious about this approach by folks like ESA. Even NASA with their SLS monstrosity. Imagine what you could do with an extra $4B per year in support for missions - it would be amazing. There is no way SpaceX can scale for that. You can't build a telescope targeting starship (maybe using starship has the frame and keep starship up there)? Or tons of other interesting ideas (spacesuits of a number of styles etc). SpaceX is a bit unique, Elon wants to get to space and is crazy about Mars. But LOTS of other stuff to do, and he doesn't seem to hung up about what he is launching (see OneWeb and all the other space com businesses he's launching).

by simonh 5y ago

actionfromafar 5y ago

Yeah, maybe. But those in the old guard are used to building expensive, one-off things. I'll agree they can have better margins on what they already do. SpaceX benefit most from stuff which can be mass-produced. Customers who have use-cases which can be massproduced, will benefit the most from SpaceX. Another commenter mentioned on the perils of that too - SpaceX owns the ride, so they hold the keys to the Kingdom.

simonh 5y ago
I think they have the opportunity, whether they take it or not is up to them. I don't worry about SpaceX dominating all aspects of space development, because their launch capacity will far, far exceed the volume of products they can reasonably develop to fill it. We're talking about the ability to deliver thousands of tons of payload to orbit per month. It's going to take many companies, many product ideas, many business models and industrial sectors to fill that capacity. It's a bit like how in the early days of the iPhone Steve Jobs imagined that Apple would develop all the apps for the phone, sometimes along with business partners, as they did with the early versions of Google Maps. His colleagues realised that the platform had the capacity to run a vast ecosystem of apps across many use cases and business models they couldn't even think of yet. The only way to realise it's potential was to carry other people's stuff, in that case apps, in SpaceX case cargo.

tempnow987 5y ago

Yeah, I'm also curious about this approach by folks like ESA. Even NASA with their SLS monstrosity. Imagine what you could do with an extra $4B per year in support for missions - it would be amazing. There is no way SpaceX can scale for that. You can't build a telescope targeting starship (maybe using starship has the frame and keep starship up there)? Or tons of other interesting ideas (spacesuits of a number of styles etc). SpaceX is a bit unique, Elon wants to get to space and is crazy about Mars. But LOTS of other stuff to do, and he doesn't seem to hung up about what he is launching (see OneWeb and all the other space com businesses he's launching).