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There are huge lifts to get to mass adoption. Most of the current tests aren't even general autonomous driving in the sense that they are being conducted in spe
by merely-unlikely 5y ago
There are huge lifts to get to mass adoption. Most of the current tests aren't even general autonomous driving in the sense that they are being conducted in specific areas only. Autonomous trucks are being tested on routes between specific destinations, cars in specific cities/neighborhoods.
For example, it's going to take years (I'd put my money on 15-20 years at least) to get general availability in NYC. The roads are terrible, inconsistent, and often lacking in clear markings; the density of cyclists and pedestrians is high; and the regulators hate any kind of change, let alone one that challenges employment.
Then there's all the infrastructure that needs building - charging stations, road improvements (I assume, for example, many highways will get some kind of infrastructure dedicated to making autonomous easier), maybe some last mile handoff to human drivers in certain jurisdictions, upskilled maintenance centers, warehouse facilities that can handle the presumably increased loads, communications infrastructure, etc, etc.
TLDR the build out is going to be a much bigger lift than you might think. Just look at how slow the rollout of 5G is going.