3 ms·

> Putin’s blundering and brutal behavior has accidentally highlighted democracy’s greatest superpower: the trait that insures that, for all of democracy’s flaws

by oytis 5y ago

> Putin’s blundering and brutal behavior has accidentally highlighted democracy’s greatest superpower: the trait that insures that, for all of democracy’s flaws, it will triumph over autocracies in the long run. > Russia’s debacle in Ukraine underscores the fact that democracy’s guarantee that leaders are regularly replaced is actually the system’s most important advantage I don't understand this premature triumphalism. The war is not over yet, and although the campaign is not running as Putin planned, Ukraine is exhausted too and no other army has chosen to intervene, so I would say if Putin wants to push to the end (and looks like he does) the odds are in his favour in general. Economic war is not over yet too. Sanctions did harm Russia's economy, but Russia also introduced some countermeasures and works hard to adapt. Looks like the West can't introduce more meaningful sanctions in the near future, so whether military threat from Russia is neutralized by these sanctions remains open for me too.

bigbizisverywyz 5y ago
I personally see no evidence Ukraine is exhausted, although their country has, and continues to receive a pummeling - ironically largely in the more Russian speaking parts to the south and east. Russia on the other hand will of course work hard to adapt, but they are about to learn that they will be ostracized and blocked at every turn when they try to reintegrate with the rest of the world. No longer will their oligarchs get to jet around the world with their outsized wealth, no longer will Russian propaganda be accepted as 'valid discussion' and their activities overlooked and hopefully no longer will Russian money be accepted to influence politics. The mask is off now and the snarling beast underneath can be seen - hopefully now by all.
- oytis 5y ago
  > I personally see no evidence Ukraine is exhausted There are news of a few fuel stores blown up by Russians every day. This limits Ukrainian mobility greatly. Ukraine has not been able to regain any significant territory despite the majority of Russian army being concentrated around Mariupol. Russian army makes advances in Mariupol step by step and after that will be free to attack other parts of Ukraine. Whether it will is going to be a decision of one man. > they are about to learn that they will be ostracized and blocked at every turn when they try to reintegrate with the rest of the world With the rest of Western world to be precise. Yes, isolation of Russia from the West is likely to succeed (although I see threats to this as well in Hungary, Germany and France). But it is open whether it will be enough to restrain Russia's military power in the long term. Isolation was just the start of the first Cold War, and is probably a start of the new one. Winning it was, and still is a non-trivial challenge.

by oytis 5y ago

bigbizisverywyz 5y ago

I personally see no evidence Ukraine is exhausted, although their country has, and continues to receive a pummeling - ironically largely in the more Russian speaking parts to the south and east. Russia on the other hand will of course work hard to adapt, but they are about to learn that they will be ostracized and blocked at every turn when they try to reintegrate with the rest of the world. No longer will their oligarchs get to jet around the world with their outsized wealth, no longer will Russian propaganda be accepted as 'valid discussion' and their activities overlooked and hopefully no longer will Russian money be accepted to influence politics. The mask is off now and the snarling beast underneath can be seen - hopefully now by all.

oytis 5y ago
> I personally see no evidence Ukraine is exhausted There are news of a few fuel stores blown up by Russians every day. This limits Ukrainian mobility greatly. Ukraine has not been able to regain any significant territory despite the majority of Russian army being concentrated around Mariupol. Russian army makes advances in Mariupol step by step and after that will be free to attack other parts of Ukraine. Whether it will is going to be a decision of one man. > they are about to learn that they will be ostracized and blocked at every turn when they try to reintegrate with the rest of the world With the rest of Western world to be precise. Yes, isolation of Russia from the West is likely to succeed (although I see threats to this as well in Hungary, Germany and France). But it is open whether it will be enough to restrain Russia's military power in the long term. Isolation was just the start of the first Cold War, and is probably a start of the new one. Winning it was, and still is a non-trivial challenge.