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Learning to adequately estimate probabilities and make decisions based on those probabilities is extremely powerful, and that's true whether you use those skill

Learning to adequately estimate probabilities and make decisions based on those probabilities is extremely powerful, and that's true whether you use those skills in your investments, your career, or your relationships. You can get a lot of practice on sites like Metaculus[1] and Manifold Markets[2]. I've also found a lot of useful discussion around these and similar skills on LessWrong, a site dedicated to the art of recognizing and correcting errors in reason and cognition. That site is full of 10x multipliers, particularly in their "Best Of" collection[3]. [1] https://www.metaculus.com/questions/ https://www.metaculus.com/questions/ [2] https://manifold.markets/home https://manifold.markets/home [3] https://www.lesswrong.com/bestoflesswrong https://www.lesswrong.com/bestoflesswrong

awestrom 5y ago
Has anyone tried to use these kinds of forecasting skills to improve software delivery estimates? Software developers are notoriously terrible at estimation and lately I've been thinking that we should look to Superforecasters[1] for inspiration about how to improve. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superforecaster https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superforecaster
- rramadass 5y ago
  You might find How to Measure Anything: Finding the Value of Intangibles in Business by Douglas Hubbard useful. - https://hubbardresearch.com/about/applied-information-economics/ https://hubbardresearch.com/about/applied-information-econom... 1) https://hubbardresearch.com/ https://hubbardresearch.com/ 2) https://www.howtomeasureanything.com/ https://www.howtomeasureanything.com/