7 ms·

Not if existing fleets can be retrofitted to be self driving. At $15/hr, if you can keep a car or truck driving 100 hours per week that's $6,000 month of labor

Not if existing fleets can be retrofitted to be self driving. At $15/hr, if you can keep a car or truck driving 100 hours per week that's $6,000 month of labor costs saved. It's reasonable to expect insurance costs will be lower as well. Fuel economy would be better too, since a self driving car would be happy to drive at 60mph or less to get more MPG. Even if the system + retrofit costs $50,000 that's an ROI of ~8 months. These numbers are made up but even with the most pessimistic of assumptions I believe widespread adoption will happen much faster than 10 years.

wiremine 5y ago
Good point. That extends the ROI of the original investment, so it feels like a no brainer. The big assumption is the retrofit market. Is that something anyone is talking about? Is that something Waymo and the like will be offering? My point is: it makes sense, but is it the low hanging fruit someone will be going after right way? Or will this happen down the road?
- gpt5 5y ago
  In a way, Waymo is already in that business - as all the cars they use are retrofitted.
  - deleted 5y ago
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  - Retric 5y ago
    Waymo is solving this for a handful of specific models, they would need to do significant work to adapt their system to say a 2010 Corolla let alone more exotic stuff. It’s not just physical instillation their models would have to be adapted for different camera placement, vehicle weight, etc.
  - jfoster 5y ago
    But not to the point where they are selling kits. They retrofit a specific vehicle for use in their service. I think CommaAI is the closest to a kit, but it probably will never quite reach "no-human-required" autonomous driving; I don't think they're even aiming for that. https://github.com/commaai/openpilot/blob/master/docs/CARS.md https://github.com/commaai/openpilot/blob/master/docs/CARS.m...
sokoloff 5y ago
If the ROI was in 8 months, I’d think the seller of the tech would be charging too little. Why give it away for that price, when an ROI of 24 months would still be compelling, would give far greater margins and a more balanced split between the consumer and producer of the tech?
Retric 5y ago
Even retrofits still run into many issues. Delivering gasoline to gas stations for example requires hooking up hoses etc. Training people on site to do it is possible, but it’s a huge shift for an industry and unlikely to finish very quickly. The same applies to delivering cement or wide loads etc which require different behavior while driving. On top of this retrofits for every existing model is a non trivial problem on it’s own.
- SturgeonsLaw 5y ago
  > Delivering gasoline to gas stations for example requires hooking up hoses etc However delivering electrons to a powerpoint doesn't :) I get your point though. The last mile stuff is tricky and fiddly, and will be done manually long after the long haul stuff has been automated.
  - balaji1 5y ago
    Is there a simpler way to make long-haul more efficient by investing in trains along the major arteries of trucking traffic (which would include ports, big production and consumption cities/regions)? And then more intense and automated load transfer between ports to trains and trains to last-mile-trucking. This could be developed along-side trucking automation. Thus developing 2 networks meaning more resilience.
    - adrianN 5y ago
      Infrastructure for trains is unfortunately very expensive. It's easier to spread the costs over thousands of trucks than to muster the political will to spend a couple of billions for a rail track.
      - trainsarebetter 5y ago
        And road infrastructure isn’t? It takes up more land and needs more maintenance than rail
14 5y ago
What do you suppose all those officers will do when cars no longer break the rules?
- ceejayoz 5y ago
  They'll claim to smell drugs. https://abovethelaw.com/2021/07/court-calls-bullst-on-cop-who-claimed-he-could-smell-weed-in-sealed-bags-in-a-moving-car-from-his-own-moving-cruiser/ https://abovethelaw.com/2021/07/court-calls-bullst-on-cop-wh... > The Court agrees with Gray that it is incredible that Officer Hiser—who self-admittedly does not have a heightened olfactory system—could smell the scent of two resealable sandwich sized plastic baggies of unburnt marijuana coming from a moving vehicle when patrolling in his cruiser. This occurrence is not only contrary to any common experiences, but is “implausible” and seemingly “contrary to the laws of nature.“
  - deleted 5y ago
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deleted 5y ago
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acd10j 5y ago
I don’t think retrofit will work at scale, as maintaining a retrofit for so many models for software as well as hardware will work, building a new model in keeping self driving in mind will be much more cheaper in long run.

wiremine 5y ago

Good point. That extends the ROI of the original investment, so it feels like a no brainer. The big assumption is the retrofit market. Is that something anyone is talking about? Is that something Waymo and the like will be offering? My point is: it makes sense, but is it the low hanging fruit someone will be going after right way? Or will this happen down the road?

gpt5 5y ago
In a way, Waymo is already in that business - as all the cars they use are retrofitted.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- Retric 5y ago
  Waymo is solving this for a handful of specific models, they would need to do significant work to adapt their system to say a 2010 Corolla let alone more exotic stuff. It’s not just physical instillation their models would have to be adapted for different camera placement, vehicle weight, etc.
- jfoster 5y ago
  But not to the point where they are selling kits. They retrofit a specific vehicle for use in their service. I think CommaAI is the closest to a kit, but it probably will never quite reach "no-human-required" autonomous driving; I don't think they're even aiming for that. https://github.com/commaai/openpilot/blob/master/docs/CARS.md https://github.com/commaai/openpilot/blob/master/docs/CARS.m...

sokoloff 5y ago

If the ROI was in 8 months, I’d think the seller of the tech would be charging too little. Why give it away for that price, when an ROI of 24 months would still be compelling, would give far greater margins and a more balanced split between the consumer and producer of the tech?

Retric 5y ago

Even retrofits still run into many issues. Delivering gasoline to gas stations for example requires hooking up hoses etc. Training people on site to do it is possible, but it’s a huge shift for an industry and unlikely to finish very quickly. The same applies to delivering cement or wide loads etc which require different behavior while driving. On top of this retrofits for every existing model is a non trivial problem on it’s own.

SturgeonsLaw 5y ago
> Delivering gasoline to gas stations for example requires hooking up hoses etc However delivering electrons to a powerpoint doesn't :) I get your point though. The last mile stuff is tricky and fiddly, and will be done manually long after the long haul stuff has been automated.
- balaji1 5y ago
  Is there a simpler way to make long-haul more efficient by investing in trains along the major arteries of trucking traffic (which would include ports, big production and consumption cities/regions)? And then more intense and automated load transfer between ports to trains and trains to last-mile-trucking. This could be developed along-side trucking automation. Thus developing 2 networks meaning more resilience.
  - adrianN 5y ago
    Infrastructure for trains is unfortunately very expensive. It's easier to spread the costs over thousands of trucks than to muster the political will to spend a couple of billions for a rail track.
    - trainsarebetter 5y ago
      And road infrastructure isn’t? It takes up more land and needs more maintenance than rail

14 5y ago

What do you suppose all those officers will do when cars no longer break the rules?

ceejayoz 5y ago
They'll claim to smell drugs. https://abovethelaw.com/2021/07/court-calls-bullst-on-cop-who-claimed-he-could-smell-weed-in-sealed-bags-in-a-moving-car-from-his-own-moving-cruiser/ https://abovethelaw.com/2021/07/court-calls-bullst-on-cop-wh... > The Court agrees with Gray that it is incredible that Officer Hiser—who self-admittedly does not have a heightened olfactory system—could smell the scent of two resealable sandwich sized plastic baggies of unburnt marijuana coming from a moving vehicle when patrolling in his cruiser. This occurrence is not only contrary to any common experiences, but is “implausible” and seemingly “contrary to the laws of nature.“
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]

deleted 5y ago

[deleted]

acd10j 5y ago

I don’t think retrofit will work at scale, as maintaining a retrofit for so many models for software as well as hardware will work, building a new model in keeping self driving in mind will be much more cheaper in long run.