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>Further, I expect the number of cars on the road to go way up because suddenly so many more people can use a car. You're assuming that the cost will be much l

>Further, I expect the number of cars on the road to go way up because suddenly so many more people can use a car. You're assuming that the cost will be much less with self-driving than ride share or cabs. It likely won't be a significant reduction for a while.

ghaff 5y ago
It’s not just cost though. I’m a bit over an hour drive to the nearest major city. I find I’m even less inclined than I used to be to head in for evening social event. If I could be driven, I’d be far more inclined to do that sort of thing and a (reasonable) cost wouldn’t be a huge factor.
- bduerst 5y ago
  >If I could be driven, I’d be far more inclined to do that sort of thing The same way a taxi or ride-share would drive you right now?
  - ghaff 5y ago
    The cost for me to get into the city with a human-driven car is close to $100 each way which is too high for pretty much anything other than going to the airport. Cut that in half and eliminate parking and it’s more thinkable for an evening event.
    - bushbaba 5y ago
      You assume self driving will be any cheaper. I doubt it.
      - ghaff 5y ago
        I don’t necessarily disagree. A lot of people seem to assume that self-driving will be super-cheap, hence my use of the term treasonable. In fact, some trike today’s IRS deductions are probably the floor especially for anyone who isn’t trying to use a clunker of some sort. I actually agree that today’s Uber/taxi rates are probably a good estimate for many years even once self-driving is practical.
zepn 5y ago
The upfront cost could remain the same while externalities like road deaths, insurance, and even pollution (via e.g. more efficient braking / speeds) goes down.
- bduerst 5y ago
  It sucks, but most consumers are rational actors that don't care about those externalized costs (hence why we have tragedy of the commons). It's especially so for the price-sensitive demographics that GP was describing above, who care about their direct cost, which likely won't change for a while.

ghaff 5y ago

It’s not just cost though. I’m a bit over an hour drive to the nearest major city. I find I’m even less inclined than I used to be to head in for evening social event. If I could be driven, I’d be far more inclined to do that sort of thing and a (reasonable) cost wouldn’t be a huge factor.

bduerst 5y ago
>If I could be driven, I’d be far more inclined to do that sort of thing The same way a taxi or ride-share would drive you right now?
- ghaff 5y ago
  The cost for me to get into the city with a human-driven car is close to $100 each way which is too high for pretty much anything other than going to the airport. Cut that in half and eliminate parking and it’s more thinkable for an evening event.
  - bushbaba 5y ago
    You assume self driving will be any cheaper. I doubt it.
    - ghaff 5y ago
      I don’t necessarily disagree. A lot of people seem to assume that self-driving will be super-cheap, hence my use of the term treasonable. In fact, some trike today’s IRS deductions are probably the floor especially for anyone who isn’t trying to use a clunker of some sort. I actually agree that today’s Uber/taxi rates are probably a good estimate for many years even once self-driving is practical.

zepn 5y ago

The upfront cost could remain the same while externalities like road deaths, insurance, and even pollution (via e.g. more efficient braking / speeds) goes down.

bduerst 5y ago
It sucks, but most consumers are rational actors that don't care about those externalized costs (hence why we have tragedy of the commons). It's especially so for the price-sensitive demographics that GP was describing above, who care about their direct cost, which likely won't change for a while.