4 ms·

The phone -> smartphone transition stretched out over the course of a decade. It’s fast relative to the adoption of the automobile for example but nowhere near

The phone -> smartphone transition stretched out over the course of a decade. It’s fast relative to the adoption of the automobile for example but nowhere near as quickly as you make it sound. Even in modern times we still have a surprising amount of Americans still use feature phones. The Pew Research Center found in 2018 that 17% of Americans still use feature phones. https://www.fool.com/investing/2018/02/19/a-foolish-take-17-of-americans-use-feature-phones.aspx https://www.fool.com/investing/2018/02/19/a-foolish-take-17-...

Kye 5y ago
I didn't get a smartphone until 2014. It was frustrating how so many people in the tech bubble acted like everyone had one long before most people did and just didn't bother with web sites anymore, leaving me out of so many new things. The failure to peek outside one's own experience is a continuing problem among the people deciding what the world will look like tomorrow. See also: the internet. People still discussed seriously whether or not it had staying power as recently as 2008. It didn't really take off until the 2008 election pushed so many people to participate in new mediums. 2004 was kind of a prelude with Howard Dean's campaign, but he mostly reached the already online set. I was already on in the 1990s, and it still surprises me when I meet people my own age who didn't get on until the 2000s or 2010s even though it's the more common experience.
- frutiger 5y ago
  > It didn't really take off until the 2008 election pushed so many people to participate in new mediums. 2004 was kind of a prelude with Howard Dean's campaign, but he mostly reached the already online set. I find the idea that the Internet’s adoption was related to US presidential election cycles a little bizarre. I know they dominate the mainstream media for a few months every four years but surely the utility of the internet vastly exceeds that? What about online shopping or even email displacing paper communications?
  - benatkin 5y ago
    Obama famously used a Blackberry. That isn't a smartphone in the current use of the term IMO, but I think it was called that back then.
  - benatkin 5y ago
    Thinking about it more...I think texting, especially group texting, was much bigger during the 2008 campaigns than it was during the 2004 campaigns, and for some, rudimentary web browsing. And they did it on the pre-iPhone concept of a smartphone, that we've since thrown out. What they used to call feature phones back then (which I think are practically discontinued now - most current feature phones would be considered smartphones in 2006) supported texting but it was used less than on the 2006 concept of smartphones.
    - Kye 5y ago
      I still remember Helio's "don't call it a phone" ads. They almost beat the iPhone launch. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Helio_Ocean https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Helio_Ocean When they said social network, they meant SMS Twitter. It was a very interesting time with lots of companies vying to be the next evolution of mobile.
  - SturgeonsLaw 5y ago
    > I find the idea that the Internet’s adoption was related to US presidential election cycles a little bizarre. I know they dominate the mainstream media for a few months every four years but surely the utility of the internet vastly exceeds that? Not to mention the rest of the planet. I'd like to take this opportunity to remind everyone that the majority of the world is not-America, and views American presidential elections as a newsworthy diversion for a few weeks every four years, and not much more than that. Those elections don't really drive any changes in behaviour. Hell, my own country's elections don't really drive any changes in behaviour.
  - Kye 5y ago
    If you double check context, you'll see the US was the subject of comment I replied to and it's reasonable to see an implicit constraint even without me qualifying it. HN's guideline on charitable reads applies to everyone regardless of geography as far as I know. It's only bizarre if you read it in a way that would be bizarre if it was a fair reading.
- slyall 5y ago
  I put the very late 1990s as hen the Internet took off. It went from being a weird techie thing to something a good proportion of the population was using. The main graph on the top of this page shows Internet Users as proportion of population in Developed countries went from 11% in 1997 to 31% in 2000. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Internet_usage https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Internet_usage
  - bsder 5y ago
    I mark the transition as Y2K exactly. It was basically right at 1999->2000 that you had internet stores completely melt down on Valentine's Day and Mother's Day. This was the point where the Internet was escaping being some weird techie thing to being something that non-technical people were using.

Kye 5y ago

I didn't get a smartphone until 2014. It was frustrating how so many people in the tech bubble acted like everyone had one long before most people did and just didn't bother with web sites anymore, leaving me out of so many new things. The failure to peek outside one's own experience is a continuing problem among the people deciding what the world will look like tomorrow. See also: the internet. People still discussed seriously whether or not it had staying power as recently as 2008. It didn't really take off until the 2008 election pushed so many people to participate in new mediums. 2004 was kind of a prelude with Howard Dean's campaign, but he mostly reached the already online set. I was already on in the 1990s, and it still surprises me when I meet people my own age who didn't get on until the 2000s or 2010s even though it's the more common experience.

frutiger 5y ago
> It didn't really take off until the 2008 election pushed so many people to participate in new mediums. 2004 was kind of a prelude with Howard Dean's campaign, but he mostly reached the already online set. I find the idea that the Internet’s adoption was related to US presidential election cycles a little bizarre. I know they dominate the mainstream media for a few months every four years but surely the utility of the internet vastly exceeds that? What about online shopping or even email displacing paper communications?
- benatkin 5y ago
  Obama famously used a Blackberry. That isn't a smartphone in the current use of the term IMO, but I think it was called that back then.
- benatkin 5y ago
  Thinking about it more...I think texting, especially group texting, was much bigger during the 2008 campaigns than it was during the 2004 campaigns, and for some, rudimentary web browsing. And they did it on the pre-iPhone concept of a smartphone, that we've since thrown out. What they used to call feature phones back then (which I think are practically discontinued now - most current feature phones would be considered smartphones in 2006) supported texting but it was used less than on the 2006 concept of smartphones.
  - Kye 5y ago
    I still remember Helio's "don't call it a phone" ads. They almost beat the iPhone launch. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Helio_Ocean https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Helio_Ocean When they said social network, they meant SMS Twitter. It was a very interesting time with lots of companies vying to be the next evolution of mobile.
- SturgeonsLaw 5y ago
  > I find the idea that the Internet’s adoption was related to US presidential election cycles a little bizarre. I know they dominate the mainstream media for a few months every four years but surely the utility of the internet vastly exceeds that? Not to mention the rest of the planet. I'd like to take this opportunity to remind everyone that the majority of the world is not-America, and views American presidential elections as a newsworthy diversion for a few weeks every four years, and not much more than that. Those elections don't really drive any changes in behaviour. Hell, my own country's elections don't really drive any changes in behaviour.
- Kye 5y ago
  If you double check context, you'll see the US was the subject of comment I replied to and it's reasonable to see an implicit constraint even without me qualifying it. HN's guideline on charitable reads applies to everyone regardless of geography as far as I know. It's only bizarre if you read it in a way that would be bizarre if it was a fair reading.
slyall 5y ago
I put the very late 1990s as hen the Internet took off. It went from being a weird techie thing to something a good proportion of the population was using. The main graph on the top of this page shows Internet Users as proportion of population in Developed countries went from 11% in 1997 to 31% in 2000. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Internet_usage https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Internet_usage
- bsder 5y ago
  I mark the transition as Y2K exactly. It was basically right at 1999->2000 that you had internet stores completely melt down on Valentine's Day and Mother's Day. This was the point where the Internet was escaping being some weird techie thing to being something that non-technical people were using.