I guess I'm imagining more of a situation where you are working with someone (or yourself) that already has a sophisticated understanding of the market's expect

I guess I'm imagining more of a situation where you are working with someone (or yourself) that already has a sophisticated understanding of the market's expectations, and you wait for opportunities where your inside info is not priced in well. Eg, a delivery app is expected to have another strong quarter of growth, but your data says that growth has stalled. However if I'm reading your point correctly, you're saying this is harder than it sounds. If you already have a "sophisticated" understanding of the market enough to make this work with low edge, why bother with a criminal conspiracy. And to make outsized returns, you need to use lots of leverage, in which case you're taking on more risk of exposure.