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That's just a dream without reasoning: - can we build enough batteries just for private cars? I really doubt. Not because the absence of a developed and battle
by kkfx 5y ago
That's just a dream without reasoning:
- can we build enough batteries just for private cars? I really doubt. Not because the absence of a developed and battle-tested supply chain like we have for oil, a supply chain can be made and developed it advantageous or anyway needed it's just a matter of time, but in terms of natural resources. Actually we do not know how to recycle batteries, that's is. In an EV they last 5 years of intense usage (after the vehicle might still run, but not suited for intense usage), or 8 years for normal usage, the tag of 10 years is mostly for a very light usage in good conditions;
- we can change actual logistic chain, for instance (re)develop far more rails (electrified) with a network dedicated to transport only non-perishable/non-urgent/storable goods that operate only when the electricity grid can give enough surplus power from renewables, that's still not solve anything, just reduce fossils usage though;
- we can develop WFH at maximum, designing an entirely new society, far spread than now with significant dense urban agglomerate just for campus/research, factories that need a certain scale, military stuff, political stuff etc while most other live spread in single-family homes not more dense that the local territory capacity to satisfy basic needs (water, foods just at the level of minimal self-sufficiency, commerce as usual for comfort and well-being), maintaining only local and minimum road networks, privileging aviation for the rest, since despite people-who-not-compute-TCO claims is the cheapest option for quick non-local human travels (and substantial development of flying things for human transport is a good proof of that);
- we can change whole scale production systems from very lengthy supply chains to shorter ones in a far less concentrate production, witch is also good for environmental reasons.
All the above offer ways to consume less, once built, all the above offer flexibility to evolve and change even rapidly, all the above might needed to adapt to climate change since rising see levels, subsidence's phenomena, soil liquefaction's, hydrogeological instability in general likely demand big relocations and a new civil infrastructure to correct errors and horrors of the actual one BUT still do not solve the most basic problem, being really "renewable". For industry we still need too much energy, so we need nuclear where classic hydropower can't be used orthographically. For shipping we can use nuclear, French not-much-rich uranium naval reactors might be a good answer. Still no solution to replace fossils for:
- metallurgy, steel/iron in particular
- lubricants
- electrical insulators, hydraulic seals etc
- generic polymers production on scale from elastic tissues to packaging
We have alternatives, yes, but nothing developable in a large scale sustainable manner.
Long story short, even in theory we know how to design a new society for transition to something still unknown.