3 ms·

Isn't there no conclusive evidence for lab leak? I'm not an anti-leaker, of course. I just believe it takes more than mere suspicion to buy into an idea. Other

Isn't there no conclusive evidence for lab leak? I'm not an anti-leaker, of course. I just believe it takes more than mere suspicion to buy into an idea. Otherwise you end up gobbling up whatever propaganda drifts near you, true or not.

octopoc 5y ago
There's circumstantial evidence. 1. The Wuhan lab was French built and supposed to jointly operated between France and China, but the French sounded the alarm about the terrible security practices of their Chinese counterparts. 2. Ecohealth, an organization with ties to the Wuhan lab, did a grant proposal to DARPA asking for money to do gain-of-function research on COVID. To be clear, gain of function research usually is something along the lines of: let's make this pathogen able to infect humans so we can study how it might infect humans if it ever evolved the ability to infect them. 3. It's dangerous research and should only be undertaken carefully, rather than in the haphazard way in which the French claimed the Chinese were engaging in research. 4. People close to the situation categorically denied that a lab leak was even possible, calling it a "conspiracy theory" although they knew that the lab had been doing similar research on similar diseases, and had declared an interest in doing so with COVID. It's like if there was an organization that declared they wanted to make unicorns real, and they had made other fairy tale animals real in the past, and then unicorns appear in the wild in the same city where this organization is based, and they're like, "It is a conspiracy theory to think we had anything to do with this."
- rmah 5y ago
  The problem is that there are hundreds, perhaps thousands, of these sort of bio labs around the world. So, I would agree that suspicion is warranted. Perhaps enough for an investigation. But, IMO, that's about it.
  - gadders 5y ago
    >> The problem is that there are hundreds, perhaps thousands, of these sort of bio labs around the world. And they have leaked before. https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2007/08/report-lab-leak-likely-caused-uk-foot-and-mouth-outbreak https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2007/08/report-l...
  - octopoc 5y ago
    Unfortunately there cannot be an investigation. Too much time will pass before the Chinese let anyone investigate, if they ever do. But there are many areas in life where you can't gather enough information to make a statistically perfect decision. That doesn't mean that we do nothing though. I think my country should drastically reduce trade with China and tell them it's because they operate biolabs haphazardly and don't allow investigations into pandemic origins. I wish all countries would do this. Then the next pandemic might not happen, because nations would be afraid of the consequences.
- raptor99 5y ago
  Let's also not forget that head of Ecohealth Alliance, Peter Daszak, published (or got published) a letter in the Lancet at the very beginning of this (~Jan-Feb 2020) essentially calling the lab leak theory a conspiracy theory. Let's also not forget that it turns out the Ecohealth Alliance was essentially able to write the rules that were used to police their own research referenced above. Also recall that recently a 19 nucleotide sequence (1 out of ~3 trillion liklihood of occurring naturally) out of SARS-COV-2 has been discovered as patented by Moderna back somewhere between 2013 to 2017.
  - Hallucinaut 5y ago
    In case anyone else wants to read about that last comment, since it piqued my interest https://api.politifact.com/factchecks/2022/mar/24/blog-posting/no-study-doesnt-prove-moderna-created-covid-19/ https://api.politifact.com/factchecks/2022/mar/24/blog-posti...
    - raptor99 5y ago
      I want to make sure that my comment was not misconstrued. I was not stating nor implying that Moderna created "Covid-19". I just thought it was interesting to note the facts and statistics of the nucleotide sequence.
  - thaumasiotes 5y ago
    > a 19 nucleotide sequence (1 out of ~3 trillion liklihood of occurring naturally) Unless it's functional, which (1) changes the odds; and (2) is a prerequisite for patenting.
- raptor99 5y ago
  Also interesting to note that I just discovered that in the summer of last year, 2021, Mr. Daszak was recused from the Lancet's Covid commission. Hmmm. https://web.archive.org/web/20210628023048/https://covid19commission.org/commissioners https://web.archive.org/web/20210628023048/https://covid19co...
Izkata 5y ago
It's more accurate to say it's accepted as a possibility. Back in 2020 it was commonly dismissed as pure conspiracy theory and just not even considered as an option.
watwut 5y ago
Afaik, we are currently back to "probably not lab leak, that is improbably". Unless you live in specific bubble that needs it to be lab leak for political reasons.

octopoc 5y ago

There's circumstantial evidence. 1. The Wuhan lab was French built and supposed to jointly operated between France and China, but the French sounded the alarm about the terrible security practices of their Chinese counterparts. 2. Ecohealth, an organization with ties to the Wuhan lab, did a grant proposal to DARPA asking for money to do gain-of-function research on COVID. To be clear, gain of function research usually is something along the lines of: let's make this pathogen able to infect humans so we can study how it might infect humans if it ever evolved the ability to infect them. 3. It's dangerous research and should only be undertaken carefully, rather than in the haphazard way in which the French claimed the Chinese were engaging in research. 4. People close to the situation categorically denied that a lab leak was even possible, calling it a "conspiracy theory" although they knew that the lab had been doing similar research on similar diseases, and had declared an interest in doing so with COVID. It's like if there was an organization that declared they wanted to make unicorns real, and they had made other fairy tale animals real in the past, and then unicorns appear in the wild in the same city where this organization is based, and they're like, "It is a conspiracy theory to think we had anything to do with this."

rmah 5y ago
The problem is that there are hundreds, perhaps thousands, of these sort of bio labs around the world. So, I would agree that suspicion is warranted. Perhaps enough for an investigation. But, IMO, that's about it.
- gadders 5y ago
  >> The problem is that there are hundreds, perhaps thousands, of these sort of bio labs around the world. And they have leaked before. https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2007/08/report-lab-leak-likely-caused-uk-foot-and-mouth-outbreak https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2007/08/report-l...
- octopoc 5y ago
  Unfortunately there cannot be an investigation. Too much time will pass before the Chinese let anyone investigate, if they ever do. But there are many areas in life where you can't gather enough information to make a statistically perfect decision. That doesn't mean that we do nothing though. I think my country should drastically reduce trade with China and tell them it's because they operate biolabs haphazardly and don't allow investigations into pandemic origins. I wish all countries would do this. Then the next pandemic might not happen, because nations would be afraid of the consequences.
raptor99 5y ago
Let's also not forget that head of Ecohealth Alliance, Peter Daszak, published (or got published) a letter in the Lancet at the very beginning of this (~Jan-Feb 2020) essentially calling the lab leak theory a conspiracy theory. Let's also not forget that it turns out the Ecohealth Alliance was essentially able to write the rules that were used to police their own research referenced above. Also recall that recently a 19 nucleotide sequence (1 out of ~3 trillion liklihood of occurring naturally) out of SARS-COV-2 has been discovered as patented by Moderna back somewhere between 2013 to 2017.
- Hallucinaut 5y ago
  In case anyone else wants to read about that last comment, since it piqued my interest https://api.politifact.com/factchecks/2022/mar/24/blog-posting/no-study-doesnt-prove-moderna-created-covid-19/ https://api.politifact.com/factchecks/2022/mar/24/blog-posti...
  - raptor99 5y ago
    I want to make sure that my comment was not misconstrued. I was not stating nor implying that Moderna created "Covid-19". I just thought it was interesting to note the facts and statistics of the nucleotide sequence.
- thaumasiotes 5y ago
  > a 19 nucleotide sequence (1 out of ~3 trillion liklihood of occurring naturally) Unless it's functional, which (1) changes the odds; and (2) is a prerequisite for patenting.
raptor99 5y ago
Also interesting to note that I just discovered that in the summer of last year, 2021, Mr. Daszak was recused from the Lancet's Covid commission. Hmmm. https://web.archive.org/web/20210628023048/https://covid19commission.org/commissioners https://web.archive.org/web/20210628023048/https://covid19co...

Izkata 5y ago

It's more accurate to say it's accepted as a possibility. Back in 2020 it was commonly dismissed as pure conspiracy theory and just not even considered as an option.

watwut 5y ago

Afaik, we are currently back to "probably not lab leak, that is improbably". Unless you live in specific bubble that needs it to be lab leak for political reasons.