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As a data scientist, perhaps this is a case of a hammer looking for a nail, but personal finance made a lot more sense when I started treating “money” as: 1) a
by Xcelerate 5y ago
As a data scientist, perhaps this is a case of a hammer looking for a nail, but personal finance made a lot more sense when I started treating “money” as: 1) a collection of arbitrary rules invented by humans, 2) probability distributions over the ability to exchange certain assets at different points in time, 3) a giant optimization program.
So, the terms “U.S. dollar”, “fixed rate mortgage”, “401k”, “capital gains”, etc. don’t really have any inherent meaning beyond the set of rules that govern their interactions. This rule system itself can change over time depending on politics and human emotions, so you have to try to model the dynamics of this meta-system as well, even though that’s pretty difficult.
Once you’ve gathered all the different rules into some programmatic representation, then you decide what it is you want out of life and at what points in your life, then you start optimizing. For example, would you rather have a 10% chance of having $1,000 on some future date, or a 1% chance of having $10,000? The expected return is the same in both cases, so your optimization should really consist of targeting a specific shape for the entire distribution of outcomes rather than a single number (or specific assets).
Not surprisingly, the average person (including me) does not have the right combination of 1) detailed knowledge of the global financial system and its rules, 2) how all these rules are likely to change, or 3) the technical background to implement the advanced mathematics required to optimize all of this in an accurate way that actually makes valid predictions.
So most people instead just guess and base their financial plans on their hunches about how “money” works, and large organizations that have the time to do all of this modeling in a more rigorous way come out much further ahead.
I still think simplifying the “rules” of finance would be one of the best things we could do to reduce wealth inequality, as inequality seems to largely be hidden in the highly volatile landscape of the cost function for the optimization problem I described.
- Apofis 5y agoMoney isn't complicated. Save money, invest it into index funds long term, don't spend more than you earn, make sure you purchase a property, and never rent. We got through COVID due to monetary policies the Federal Reserver, White House, and Congress enacted, all levers that would disappear in this "paradise" crypto nerds/enthusiasts sell where our government loses all control over money. Further, Venture Capitalists borrow money from Investment Banks who borrow money from the FED, how do we all envision this process working if our government can no longer issue money? A nebulous "DAO" with smart contracts? I'm not sure I'm comfortable with that.
- nebulous_two 5y agoThank you for giving me this perspective. I think it's hard to see it this way because of the emotional load money has due to its necessity for ones survival these days.
- illwrks 5y agoI like this idea, but I wonder... if the rules were transparent would it inflate bubbles in areas that would be more likely to have the expected outcome, therefore making them less of a guarantee.
- merely-unlikely 5y agoThat's just expectations getting "priced in" as we say in the public markets and goes a long way to explaining tech multiples.
- merely-unlikely 5y ago"1) a collection of arbitrary rules invented by humans, 2) probability distributions over the ability to exchange certain assets at different points in time, 3) a giant optimization program." That's a pretty good and succinct way of explaining the function of public markets. Their whole purpose is optimizing capital allocation by translating disparate assets across time into a single common metric.