Lumber is not an indicator of much, because distribution is a bit artificial. A lot of places have been sitting on lumber to keep prices high - a kind of distri

Lumber is not an indicator of much, because distribution is a bit artificial. A lot of places have been sitting on lumber to keep prices high - a kind of distributed/collective collusion. I don't know for sure, but I believe the same thing happens to gas prices, whenever there is a reason for gas stations to jack up prices, they do, and justify it by 'oh there's a war in XYZ country'. Or if the headlines say 'Oil Shock' - then the bump up prices even though the pricing has not hit them at all. They can just get away with it, and they know it. So they all just do it and hold out until some of them 'blink' and prices come down. As far as the 'new home' anecdotes, I'm not sure if NYC/SF are ever very good barometers overall. Some places are designed to have demand. Just pop out into the exaburbs and see what's happening there. Or Orlando. Or Atlanta. etc..