5 ms·

I read numbers like that and I think, "Sure glad I'm not the one who'll be holding the bag on that." But then...I might be. I'm not sure. Someone's going to

I read numbers like that and I think, "Sure glad I'm not the one who'll be holding the bag on that." But then...I might be. I'm not sure. Someone's going to be making good on the money that disappears when the greater fool mails his keys back to the bank. Will it be the standard idiots Fannie, Freddy, Deutsche Bank, and whoever pulls the short straw at the NY Fed annual picnic?

nostrademons 5y ago
You probably are the one holding the bag. Prices are exploding because mortgage rates are being held below the rate of inflation. In this scenario, it makes sense to borrow as much money as you possibly can and buy hard assets with it, because your mortgage is essentially a transfer of wealth from the bank to you. Normally banks would be the bagholders in this scenario, but because of securitization, they just package off the mortgage and sell it on the MBS market. The biggest buyer of MBS's lately has been the Fed, which they do with money newly injected into the market. The effect of this money creation is the inflation we've seen over the last 2 years, so effectively this has been a transfer of wealth from savers and anyone whose income is denominated in cash, to buyers and to some extent sellers of homes.
nemo44x 5y ago
I’m not sure either and neither are real estate agents. My contacts there are thought we’d see a flat at best market this year. But here we are - biggest jump yet. Spoke with a notary a few days ago that said they’ve never been busier. People locking in low rates. But to me it seems like it’s going to cool fast. Rates going up. Fine if you’re long term. I went to view a house a few weeks ago listed at 1.25 and that seemed high. I asked my real stir if 1.6 gets it done and she said I doubt it - need 1.75. Heard (not published yet) a rumor it went for 1.835. Anecdotal but something seems broke. Saying that I just took out a line of credit for a few hundred thousand.
octoberfranklin 5y ago
> "Sure glad I'm not the one who'll be holding the bag on that." But then...I might be. I'm not sure. That's a simple one to answer. Are you a taxpayer?

nostrademons 5y ago

You probably are the one holding the bag. Prices are exploding because mortgage rates are being held below the rate of inflation. In this scenario, it makes sense to borrow as much money as you possibly can and buy hard assets with it, because your mortgage is essentially a transfer of wealth from the bank to you. Normally banks would be the bagholders in this scenario, but because of securitization, they just package off the mortgage and sell it on the MBS market. The biggest buyer of MBS's lately has been the Fed, which they do with money newly injected into the market. The effect of this money creation is the inflation we've seen over the last 2 years, so effectively this has been a transfer of wealth from savers and anyone whose income is denominated in cash, to buyers and to some extent sellers of homes.

nemo44x 5y ago

I’m not sure either and neither are real estate agents. My contacts there are thought we’d see a flat at best market this year. But here we are - biggest jump yet. Spoke with a notary a few days ago that said they’ve never been busier. People locking in low rates. But to me it seems like it’s going to cool fast. Rates going up. Fine if you’re long term. I went to view a house a few weeks ago listed at 1.25 and that seemed high. I asked my real stir if 1.6 gets it done and she said I doubt it - need 1.75. Heard (not published yet) a rumor it went for 1.835. Anecdotal but something seems broke. Saying that I just took out a line of credit for a few hundred thousand.

octoberfranklin 5y ago

> "Sure glad I'm not the one who'll be holding the bag on that." But then...I might be. I'm not sure. That's a simple one to answer. Are you a taxpayer?