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That's what happen now, thanks to a big and powerful propaganda, but skyrocketing inflation (not really caused by Ukrainian war, and many know that) and decade
by kkfx 5y ago
That's what happen now, thanks to a big and powerful propaganda, but skyrocketing inflation (not really caused by Ukrainian war, and many know that) and decade long social degradation have put many on the brink of a civil war. Actually propaganda win, but can't do that for long.
That means that's unlikely but not that unlikely that a big EU State (France, for instance) elect a new government that decide it's about time to exit NATO and propose a strategic partnership to Russia. It was about to happen and it was stopped by Eastern European countries just few months ago, it can came back quickly.
Actually both USA and Russia prefer a not-really-united EU but EU Citizens are already united enough and since crisis bite things can change rapidly. At that point classic repression will fail and tentative to ride the unrest in different directions might not succeed. Italy and Germany are well subjugated by NATO, France is not, few other EU countries are middle-ground since they can't simply act alone.
Re-orienting energy dependency is just an economic move: it's impossible to live on GNL shipping, it's impossible to complete the Green New Deal quick enough, the sole answer is keep and expand nuclear and only States have resources to do so, that means cutting out neoliberals who rule the energy. Even pushing renewable at maximum speed can't really work: it can work with new single-family homes, well placed, EU population density and actual civil structures are incompatible, dense cities can't have buildings re-made to be A-class quickly, electricity grid can't be re-made quickly etc hydro power can be added quickly but States who can orographically already have a significant slice of hydro and can't add much more, similarly we can't all change vehicles quickly. GNLs can't arrive quickly and being properly integrated in actual networks. That's why the EU without much advertisement continue to purchase Russian gas as usual. A change can happen in 7-8 years, perhaps hardly in 5-6 years, not quicker than that. And that's not just energy, too many EU countries depend on other natural resources from Russia and can't substitute them on-the-spot.
- saiya-jin 5y agoman you sure point too many things, back none, and just mix everything into goulash that doesn't make much sense (apart from outright lies which are also too many to actually discuss properly here)
- kkfx 5y agoFor some reasons unknown to me my comment got deleted, perhaps because I'm more or less say that you are a conformist (witch is not really an insult, IMVHO anyway), so I try again in a different sauce: try to read the 1929 press. For most everything was ok or ok-ish at least and the few who say something is deeply broken just make a soup of different and not really connected things. The we know what happen. That's the goulash. We can just wait and see. Personally I expect a new global war for resources and economic reasons and I expect hi tech gears will be of no help to win it, witch is unfortunate for us westerners because while we have hi tech gears and also nukes we largely miss a mass of young, loyal and desperate army that having nothing to loose just fight with the maximum effort to the death...