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Using calibrated Bayesian reasoning can certainly be an innate trait. Some people seem good at making good predictions and assessing uncertainty of the data and
by BenoitEssiambre 5y ago
Using calibrated Bayesian reasoning can certainly be an innate trait. Some people seem good at making good predictions and assessing uncertainty of the data and knowledge they have whether they've been thought or not and it seems like an unusually difficult thing to teach. Will you make that much better predictions even if you read all of the lesswrong.com cannon?
- jhanschoo 5y agoI dont think your definition is accurate though. IQ tests like progressive matrices dont test only if you have good probabilistic models but how well you can identify the pattern in the matrices. If the patterns follow a minimum entropy distribution, there is only so much that falls to technique, and the technique is intuitive (prefer simple over complex); there is still the problem of raw computation that is guessing and rejecting.